Related papers: Dependent Conditional Value-at-Risk for Aggregate …
We study the closure properties of the class of Bivariate Regular Variation, symbolically BRV , in standard and nonstandard cases, with respect to the randomly weighted sums. However, we take into consideration a weak dependence structure…
We study issues of robustness in the context of Quantitative Risk Management and Optimization. We develop a general methodology for determining whether a given risk measurement related optimization problem is robust, which we call…
A standard quantitative method to access credit risk employs a factor model based on joint multivariate normal distribution properties. By extending a one-factor Gaussian copula model to make a more accurate default forecast, this paper…
We focus on the time-varying modeling of VaR at a given coverage $\tau$, assessing whether the quantiles of the distribution of the returns standardized by their conditional means and standard deviations exhibit predictable dynamics. Models…
Risk management is a prominent issue in peer-to-peer lending. An investor may naturally reduce his risk exposure by diversifying instead of putting all his money on one loan. In that case, an investor may want to minimize the Value-at-Risk…
We propose a new procedure for the risk measurement of large portfolios. It employs the following objects as the building blocks: - coherent risk measures introduced by Artzner, Delbaen, Eber, and Heath; - factor risk measures introduced in…
The coefficient of variation (CV) is commonly used to measure relative dispersion. However, since it is based on the sample mean and standard deviation, outliers can adversely affect the CV. Additionally, for skewed distributions the mean…
This paper introduces the notions of stability, ultimate boundedness, and positive invariance for stochastic systems in the view of risk. More specifically, those notions are defined in terms of the worst-case Conditional Value-at-Risk…
In the financial field, precise risk assessment tools are essential for decision-making. Recent studies have challenged the notion that traditional network loss functions like Mean Square Error (MSE) are adequate, especially under extreme…
We study explained variation under the additive hazards regression model for right-censored data. We consider different approaches for developing such a measure, and focus on one that estimates the proportion of variation in the failure…
The hazard function is central to the formulation of commonly used survival regression models such as the proportional hazards and accelerated failure time models. However, these models rely on a shared baseline hazard, which, when…
PAC generalization bounds on the risk, when expressed in terms of the expected loss, are often insufficient to capture imbalances between subgroups in the data. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a new family of risk measures, called…
Under Solvency II the computation of capital requirements is based on value at risk (V@R). V@R is a quantile-based risk measure and neglects extreme risks in the tail. V@R belongs to the family of distortion risk measures. A serious…
It is well known that Expected Shortfall (also called Average Value-at-Risk) is a convex risk measure, i. e. Expected Shortfall of a convex linear combination of arbitrary risk positions is not greater than a convex linear combination with…
We derive a closed-form expression capturing the degree of Relative Risk Aversion (RRA) of investors for non-"fair" lotteries. We argue that our formula is superior to earlier methods that have been proposed, as it is a function of only…
Operational risk capital estimation under Basel II/III requires quantifying aggregate losses at extreme confidence levels of 99.9% and beyond, yet the standard Loss Distribution Approach (LDA) assumes independence between loss frequency and…
This paper investigates the properties of the Generalized Covariance (GCov) estimator under misspecification and constraints with application to processes with local explosive patterns, such as causal-noncausal and double autoregressive…
We consider a class of risk-averse submodular maximization problems (RASM) where the objective is the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of a random nondecreasing submodular function at a given risk level. We propose valid inequalities and an…
We develop an extreme value framework for CoVaR centered on $v(q \mid p ; C)$, the copula-adjusted probability level, or equivalently, the CoVaR on the uniform (0,1) scale. We characterize the possible tail regimes of $v(q \mid p ; C)$…
In an environment of increasingly volatile financial markets, the accurate estimation of risk remains a major challenge. Traditional econometric models, such as GARCH and its variants, are based on assumptions that are often too rigid to…