Related papers: Heterogeneity and Superspreading Effect on Herd Im…
A primary quantity of interest in the study of infectious diseases is the average number of new infections that an infected person produces. This so-called reproduction number has significant implications for the disease progression. There…
A social (sexual) network is modeled by an extension of the configuration model to the situation where edges have weights, e.g. reflecting the number of sex-contacts between the individuals. An epidemic model is defined on the network such…
The COVID-19 pandemic has emerged as a global public health crisis. To make decisions about mitigation strategies and to understand the disease dynamics, policy makers and epidemiologists must know how the disease is spreading in their…
The waning of immunity after recovery or vaccination is a major factor accounting for the severity and prolonged duration of an array of epidemics, ranging from COVID-19 to diphtheria and pertussis. To study the effectiveness of different…
In this paper, we conduct mathematical and numerical analyses to address the following crucial questions for COVID-19: (Q1) Is it possible to contain COVID-19? (Q2) When will be the peak and the end of the epidemic? (Q3) How do the…
Human diseases spread over networks of contacts between individuals and a substantial body of recent research has focused on the dynamics of the spreading process. Here we examine a model of two competing diseases spreading over the same…
We study a simple case of the susceptible-weakened-infected-removed model in regular random graphs in a situation where an epidemic starts from a finite fraction of initially infected nodes (seeds). Previous studies have shown that,…
The World Health Organisation (WHO) has very strongly recommended testing and isolation as a strategy for controlling the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The goal of this paper is to quantify the effects of detection and isolation in formal…
In this paper, a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model with identical infectivity, where each node is assigned with the same capability of active contacts, $A$, at each time step, is presented. We found that on scale-free networks,…
Waning immunity and reinfection are critical features of many infectious diseases, but epidemiological models often fail to capture the intricate interaction between an individual's history of immunity and their current infection status;…
Epidemiological dynamics are affected by the spatial and demographic structure of the host population. Households and neighbourhoods are known to be important groupings but little is known about the epidemiological interplay between them.…
Sexual partnerships that overlap in time (concurrent relationships) may play a significant role in the HIV epidemic, but the precise effect is unclear. We derive edge-based compartmental models of disease spread in idealized dynamic…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments faced difficulties in implementing mobility restriction measures, as no clear quantitative relationship between human mobility and infection spread in large cities is known. We developed a model…
Compartmental models of epidemics are widely used to forecast the effects of communicable diseases such as COVID-19 and to guide policy. Although it has long been known that such processes take place on social networks, the assumption of…
We study equilibrium distancing during epidemics. Distancing reduces the individual's probability of getting infected but comes at a cost. It creates a single-peaked epidemic, flattens the curve and decreases the size of the epidemic. We…
Objectives: We aim to assess the impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19 across communities after accounting for community-level factors such as demographics, socioeconomic status, and human mobility…
The ability to directly record human face-to-face interactions increasingly enables the development of detailed data-driven models for the spread of directly transmitted infectious diseases at the scale of individuals. Complete coverage of…
Compartmental epidemic models with dynamics that evolve over a graph network have gained considerable importance in recent years but analysis of these models is in general difficult due to their complexity. In this paper, we develop two…
Understanding the spread of diseases through complex networks is of great interest where realistic, heterogeneous contact patterns play a crucial role in the spread. Most works have focused on mean-field behavior -- quantifying how contact…
Decline of immunity is a phenomenon characterized by immunocompromised host and plays a crucial role in the epidemiology of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) such as COVID-19. In this paper, we propose an age-structured model with…