Related papers: Optimal Control in Pandemics
The recent coronavirus outbreak has made governments face an inconvenient tradeoff choice, i.e. the choice between saving lives and saving the economy, forcing them to make immensely consequential decisions among alternative courses of…
The aim of this paper is to provide a rigorous mathematical analysis of an optimal control problem of a SIR epidemic on an infinite horizon. A state constraint related to intensive care units (ICU) capacity is imposed and the objective…
Covid-19 is one of the most dreaded pandemics/epidemics in the world threatening the human population. The dynamics of this pandemic is quite complicated and prediction of pandemic states often fails. In this work, we study and correlate…
We consider the SIR model and study the first time the number of infected individuals begins to decrease and the first time this population is below a given threshold. We interpret these times as functions of the initial susceptible and…
Large-scale crises, including wars and pandemics, have repeatedly shaped human history, and their simultaneous occurrence presents profound challenges to societies. Understanding the dynamics of epidemic spread during warfare is essential…
With a two-layer contact-dispersion model and data in China, we analyze the cost-effectiveness of three types of antiepidemic measures for COVID-19: regular epidemiological control, local social interaction control, and inter-city travel…
This paper studies viability and control synthesis for a delayed SIR epidemic. The model integrates a constant delay representing an incubation/latency time. The control inputs model non-pharmaceutical interventions, while an intensive care…
Epidemic models are useful tools in the fight against infectious diseases, as they allow policy makers to test and compare various strategies to limit disease transmission while mitigating collateral damage on the economy. Epidemic models…
Although modeling studies are focused on the control of SIR-based systems describing epidemic data sets (particularly the COVID-19), few of them present a formal dynamic characterization in terms of equilibrium sets and stability. Such…
Pandemic control measures like lock-down, restrictions on restaurants and gatherings, social-distancing have shown to be effective in curtailing the spread of COVID-19. However, their sustained enforcement has negative economic effects. To…
Policymakers commonly employ non-pharmaceutical interventions to manage the scale and severity of pandemics. Of non-pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing policies -- designed to reduce person-to-person pathogenic spread -- have…
After the introduction of drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments have adopted a strategy based on a periodic relaxation of such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis…
In this work we combing models of disease dynamics and economic production, and we show the potential implications of this for demonstrating the importance of savings for buffering an economy during the period of an epidemic. Finding an…
As we reach the apex of the COVID-19 pandemic, the most pressing question facing us is: can we even partially reopen the economy without risking a second wave? We first need to understand if shutting down the economy helped. And if it did,…
The current global health emergency triggered by the pandemic COVID-19 is one of the greatest challenges mankind face in this generation. Computational simulations have played an important role to predict the development of the current…
Mass public quarantining, colloquially known as a lock-down, is a non-pharmaceutical intervention to check spread of disease. This paper presents ESOP (Epidemiologically and Socio-economically Optimal Policies), a novel application of…
Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of…
We introduce a general system of ordinary differential equations that includes some classical and recent models for the epidemic spread in a closed population without vital dynamic in a finite time horizon. The model is vectorial, in the…
This paper develops a Nash-equilibrium extension of the classic SIR model of infectious-disease epidemiology ("Nash SIR"), endogenizing people's decisions whether to engage in economic activity during a viral epidemic and allowing for…
The traditional long-term solutions for epidemic control involve eradication or population immunity. Here, we analytically derive the existence of a third viable solution: a stable equilibrium at low case numbers, where…