Related papers: Wisdom of the crowds forecasting the 2018 FIFA Men…
We propose an agent-based model of collective opinion formation to study the wisdom of crowds under social influence. The opinion of an agent is a continuous positive value, denoting its subjective answer to a factual question. The wisdom…
This paper investigates the fairness of the 2018 FIFA World Cup qualifying competition via Monte Carlo simulations. The qualifying probabilities are calculated for 102 nations, all teams except for African and European countries. A method…
Motivated by the goal of forecasting public sentiments, we consider a forecasting problem in the context of the Mean Field Games theory. We develop a numerical method, which is a version of the so-called convexification method. We provide…
The goal of our research is to contribute information about how useful the crowd is at anticipating stereotypes that may be biasing a data set without a researcher's knowledge. The results of the crowd's prediction can potentially be used…
Predicting the winner of an election is a favorite problem both for news media pundits and computational social choice theorists. Since it is often infeasible to elicit the preferences of all the voters in a typical prediction scenario, a…
This paper considers the use of observed and predicted match statistics as inputs to forecasts of the outcomes of football matches. It is shown that, were it possible to know the match statistics in advance, highly informative forecasts of…
Most fake news detection methods learn latent feature representations based on neural networks, which makes them black boxes to classify a piece of news without giving any justification. Existing explainable systems generate veracity…
The effects of real-world events on the dynamics and sentiment expressed through online conversations is not entirely understood. In particular, the dynamics of highly polarized communities, deeply invested in the outcome of a particular…
During the unfolding of a crisis, it is crucial to determine its severity, yet access to reliable data is challenging. We investigate the relation between geolocated Tweet Intensity of initial COVID-19 related tweet at the beginning of the…
In research policy, effective measures that lead to improvements in the generation of knowledge must be based on reliable methods of research assessment, but for many countries and institutions this is not the case. Publication and citation…
The standard mathematical approach to fourth-down decision making in American football is to make the decision that maximizes estimated win probability. Win probability estimates arise from machine learning models fit from historical data.…
Conversational Swarm Intelligence (CSI) is a communication technology that enables large, networked groups (25 to 2500 people) to hold real-time conversational deliberations online. Modeled on the dynamics of biological swarms, CSI enables…
A folksonomy is ostensibly an information structure built up by the "wisdom of the crowd", but is the "crowd" really doing the work? Tagging is in fact a sharply skewed process in which a small minority of "supertagger" users generate an…
Wordle is an online word puzzle game that gained viral popularity in January 2022. The goal is to guess a hidden five letter word. After each guess, the player gains information about whether the letters they guessed are present in the…
Schema matching is a central challenge for data integration systems. Inspired by the popularity and the success of crowdsourcing platforms, we explore the use of crowdsourcing to reduce the uncertainty of schema matching. Since…
The emergence of large language models (LLMs) has spurred economists to study how humans and LLMs behave in strategic settings. We organized a series of round-robin tournaments in the Colonel Blotto game. This game attracts game theorists'…
Numerous algorithms have been developed for online product rating prediction, but the specific influence of user and product information in determining the final prediction score remains largely unexplored. Existing research often relies on…
In many social-choice mechanisms the resulting choice is not the most preferred one for some of the participants, thus the need for methods to justify the choice made in a way that improves the acceptance and satisfaction of said…
In this paper, we present a new application-focused benchmark dataset and results from a set of baseline Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning models for prediction of match outcomes for games of football (soccer). By doing so we…
Human groups can perform extraordinary accurate estimations compared to individuals by simply using the mean, median or geometric mean of the individual estimations [Galton 1907, Surowiecki 2005, Page 2008]. However, this is true only for…