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Accurate predictions and uncertainty quantification (UQ) are essential for decision-making in risk-sensitive fields such as system safety modeling. Deep ensembles (DEs) are efficient and scalable methods for UQ in Deep Neural Networks…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-13 Zaid Abulawi , Rui Hu , Prasanna Balaprakash , Yang Liu

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer a principled and natural framework for proper uncertainty quantification in the context of deep learning. They address the typical challenges associated with conventional deep learning methods, such as…

Computation · Statistics 2024-11-13 Zahra Moslemi , Yang Meng , Shiwei Lan , Babak Shahbaba

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are nonlinear dynamical models commonly used in the machine learning and dynamical systems literature to represent complex dynamical or sequential relationships between variables. More recently, as deep…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-08 Patrick L. McDermott , Christopher K. Wikle

Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) provide principled uncertainty quantification but suffer from substantial computational and memory overhead compared to deterministic networks. While quantization techniques have successfully reduced resource…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-12 Hendrik Borras , Yong Wu , Bernhard Klein , Holger Fröning

In seismic exploration, first break (FB) picking is a crucial aspect in the determination of subsurface velocity models, significantly influencing the placement of wells. Many deep neural networks (DNNs)-based automatic picking methods have…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-04-09 Hongtao Wang , Jiangshe Zhang , Xiaoli Wei , Li Long , Chunxia Zhang

Deep learning (DL) has shown great potential in medical image enhancement problems, such as super-resolution or image synthesis. However, to date, little consideration has been given to uncertainty quantification over the output image. Here…

As autonomous systems increasingly rely on Deep Neural Networks (DNN) to implement the navigation pipeline functions, uncertainty estimation methods have become paramount for estimating confidence in DNN predictions. Bayesian Deep Learning…

Robotics · Computer Science 2022-06-07 Fabio Arnez , Ansgar Radermacher , Huascar Espinoza

Image reconstruction methods based on deep neural networks have shown outstanding performance, equalling or exceeding the state-of-the-art results of conventional approaches, but often do not provide uncertainty information about the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-12-01 Riccardo Barbano , Željko Kereta , Chen Zhang , Andreas Hauptmann , Simon Arridge , Bangti Jin

We present a comparison of methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in deep learning algorithms in the context of a simple physical system. Three of the most common uncertainty quantification methods - Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN),…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-08 João Caldeira , Brian Nord

We propose a novel method for closed-form predictive distribution modeling with neural nets. In quantifying prediction uncertainty, we build on Evidential Deep Learning, which has been impactful as being both simple to implement and giving…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-22 Manuel Haussmann , Sebastian Gerwinn , Melih Kandemir

We propose a novel \textit{capsule} based deep encoder-decoder model for surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification of systems in mechanics from sparse data. The proposed framework is developed by adapting Capsule Network (CapsNet)…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-20 Akshay Thakur , Souvik Chakraborty

Existing methods for estimating uncertainty in deep learning tend to require multiple forward passes, making them unsuitable for applications where computational resources are limited. To solve this, we perform probabilistic reasoning over…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-08 Javier Antorán , James Urquhart Allingham , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Accurate precipitation forecasts are crucial for applications such as flood management, agricultural planning, water resource allocation, and weather warnings. Despite advances in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, they still…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-02 Simone Monaco , Luca Monaco , Daniele Apiletti

We show that training a deep network using batch normalization is equivalent to approximate inference in Bayesian models. We further demonstrate that this finding allows us to make meaningful estimates of the model uncertainty using…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-17 Mattias Teye , Hossein Azizpour , Kevin Smith

In recent years, deep learning has proven to be a viable methodology for surrogate modeling and uncertainty quantification for a vast number of physical systems. However, in their traditional form, such models can require a large amount of…

Computational Physics · Physics 2019-12-04 Nicholas Geneva , Nicholas Zabaras

Deep learning has emerged as a promising paradigm to give access to highly accurate predictions of molecular and materials properties. A common short-coming shared by current approaches, however, is that neural networks only give point…

Computational Physics · Physics 2023-05-10 Albert Zhu , Simon Batzner , Albert Musaelian , Boris Kozinsky

Deep Learning (DL) methods have been transforming computer vision with innovative adaptations to other domains including climate change. For DL to pervade Science and Engineering (S&E) applications where risk management is a core component,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-25 Thomas Vandal , Evan Kodra , Jennifer Dy , Sangram Ganguly , Ramakrishna Nemani , Auroop R. Ganguly

We introduce implicit Bayesian neural networks, a simple and scalable approach for uncertainty representation in deep learning. Standard Bayesian approach to deep learning requires the impractical inference of the posterior distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-27 Trung Trinh , Samuel Kaski , Markus Heinonen

Deep learning-based numerical schemes for solving high-dimensional backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs) have recently raised plenty of scientific interest. While they enable numerical methods to approximate very…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-10-06 Lorenc Kapllani , Long Teng , Matthias Rottmann

Accurate uncertainty quantification is a major challenge in deep learning, as neural networks can make overconfident errors and assign high confidence predictions to out-of-distribution (OOD) inputs. The most popular approaches to estimate…