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It is critical yet challenging for deep learning models to properly characterize uncertainty that is pervasive in real-world environments. Although a lot of efforts have been made, such as heteroscedastic neural networks (HNNs), little work…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-30 Peng Cui , Zhijie Deng , Wenbo Hu , Jun Zhu

Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Balaji Lakshminarayanan , Alexander Pritzel , Charles Blundell

Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (NSDEs) model the drift and diffusion functions of a stochastic process as neural networks. While NSDEs are known to make accurate predictions, their uncertainty quantification properties have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-13 Andreas Look , Melih Kandemir , Barbara Rakitsch , Jan Peters

Uncertainty quantification is an important and challenging problem in deep learning. Previous methods rely on dropout layers which are not present in modern deep architectures or batch normalization which is sensitive to batch sizes. In…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-07-10 Lukasz Wandzik , Raul Vicente Garcia , Jörg Krüger

Uncertainty quantification is a critical yet unsolved challenge for deep learning, especially for the time series imputation with irregularly sampled measurements. To tackle this problem, we propose a novel framework based on the principles…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-05 Shweta Dahale , Sai Munikoti , Balasubramaniam Natarajan

Deep neural networks can be roughly divided into deterministic neural networks and stochastic neural networks.The former is usually trained to achieve a mapping from input space to output space via maximum likelihood estimation for the…

We develop a probabilistic machine learning method, which formulates a class of stochastic neural networks by a stochastic optimal control problem. An efficient stochastic gradient descent algorithm is introduced under the stochastic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-04-06 Richard Archibald , Feng Bao , Yanzhao Cao , He Zhang

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (N-ODEs) are a powerful building block for learning systems, which extend residual networks to a continuous-time dynamical system. We propose a Bayesian version of N-ODEs that enables well-calibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-19 Andreas Look , Melih Kandemir

Neural networks predictions are unreliable when the input sample is out of the training distribution or corrupted by noise. Being able to detect such failures automatically is fundamental to integrate deep learning algorithms into robotics.…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2020-02-18 Antonio Loquercio , Mattia Segù , Davide Scaramuzza

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) augment deep networks with uncertainty quantification by Bayesian treatment of the network weights. However, such models face the challenge of Bayesian inference in a high-dimensional and usually…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-30 Zhijie Deng , Yucen Luo , Jun Zhu , Bo Zhang

We propose a novel Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) framework to address the problem of learning uncertainty-aware representations for graph-structured data. While Graph Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (GNODEs) have shown…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-15 Richard Bergna , Sergio Calvo-Ordoñez , Felix L. Opolka , Pietro Liò , Jose Miguel Hernandez-Lobato

We introduce a novel framework for uncertainty quantification of solution operators associated with stochastic partial differential equations (SPDEs). Although SPDEs play a central role in modeling complex physical systems under…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-19 Phuoc-Toan Huynh , Richard Archibald , Feng Bao

Bayesian neural networks (BNN) and deep ensembles are principled approaches to estimate the predictive uncertainty of a deep learning model. However their practicality in real-time, industrial-scale applications are limited due to their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-27 Jeremiah Zhe Liu , Zi Lin , Shreyas Padhy , Dustin Tran , Tania Bedrax-Weiss , Balaji Lakshminarayanan

Effective quantification of uncertainty is an essential and still missing step towards a greater adoption of deep-learning approaches in different applications, including mission-critical ones. In particular, investigations on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-14 Marco Forgione , Dario Piga

I propose a novel framework that integrates stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with deep generative models to improve uncertainty quantification in machine learning applications involving structured and temporal data. This approach,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-09 James Rice

We consider the problem of uncertainty estimation in the context of (non-Bayesian) deep neural classification. In this context, all known methods are based on extracting uncertainty signals from a trained network optimized to solve the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-04-25 Yonatan Geifman , Guy Uziel , Ran El-Yaniv

Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are powerful tools for various computer vision tasks, yet they often struggle with reliable uncertainty quantification - a critical requirement for real-world applications. Bayesian Neural Networks (BNN) are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-27 Gianni Franchi , Olivier Laurent , Maxence Leguéry , Andrei Bursuc , Andrea Pilzer , Angela Yao

To model time series accurately is important within a wide range of fields. As the world is generally too complex to be modelled exactly, it is often meaningful to assess the probability of a dynamical system to be in a specific state. This…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-16 Mari Dahl Eggen , Alise Danielle Midtfjord

The use of Deep Neural Network (DNN) models in risk-based decision-making has attracted extensive attention with broad applications in medical, finance, manufacturing, and quality control. To mitigate prediction-related risks in decision…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-11 Maryam Kheirandish , Shengfan Zhang , Donald G. Catanzaro , Valeriu Crudu

While deep neural networks have become the go-to approach in computer vision, the vast majority of these models fail to properly capture the uncertainty inherent in their predictions. Estimating this predictive uncertainty can be crucial,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-08 Fredrik K. Gustafsson , Martin Danelljan , Thomas B. Schön
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