Related papers: Large deviations of extreme eigenvalues of general…
In many practical situations we would like to estimate the covariance matrix of a set of variables from an insufficient amount of data. More specifically, if we have a set of $N$ independent, identically distributed measurements of an $M$…
In this paper we study the joint distributional convergence of the largest eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix of a $p$-dimensional time series with iid entries when $p$ converges to infinity together with the sample size $n$. We…
Programs with randomization constructs is an active research topic, especially after the recent introduction of martingale-based analysis methods for their termination and runtimes. Unlike most of the existing works that focus on proving…
We consider regularly varying random vectors. Our goal is to estimate in a non-parametric way some characteristics related to conditioning on an extreme event, like the tail dependence coefficient. We introduce a quasi-spectral…
We study the joint limit distribution of the $k$ largest eigenvalues of a $p\times p$ sample covariance matrix $XX^\T$ based on a large $p\times n$ matrix $X$. The rows of $X$ are given by independent copies of a linear process,…
We study inference on the common stochastic trends in a non-stationary, $N$-variate time series $y_{t}$, in the possible presence of heavy tails. We propose a novel methodology which does not require any knowledge or estimation of the tail…
We consider the problem of efficient simulation estimation of the density function at the tails, and the probability of large deviations for a sum of independent, identically distributed, light-tailed and non-lattice random vectors. The…
For statistics of rare events in systems obeying a large-deviation principle, the rate function is a key quantity. When numerically estimating the rate function one is always restricted to finite system sizes. Thus, if the interest is in…
We analyze complex networks under random matrix theory framework. Particularly, we show that $\Delta_3$ statistic, which gives information about the long range correlations among eigenvalues, provides a qualitative measure of randomness in…
This article reviews the concepts and methods of variational path sampling. These methods allow computational studies of rare events in systems driven arbitrarily far from equilibrium. Based upon a statistical mechanics of trajectory space…
Most extreme events in real life can be faithfully modeled as random realizations from a Generalized Pareto distribution, which depends on two parameters: the scale and the shape. In many actual situations, one is mostly concerned with the…
The tail of the distribution of a sum of a random number of independent and identically distributed nonnegative random variables depends on the tails of the number of terms and of the terms themselves. This situation is of interest in the…
A perturbative approach is used to derive approximations of arbitrary order to estimate high percentiles of sums of positive independent random variables that exhibit heavy tails. Closed-form expressions for the successive approximations…
This paper presents a novel semiparametric method to study the effects of extreme events on binary outcomes and subsequently forecast future outcomes. Our approach, based on Bayes' theorem and regularly varying (RV) functions, facilitates a…
Rare events in the first-passage distributions of jump processes are capable of triggering anomalous reactions or series of events. Estimating their probability is particularly important when the jump probabilities have broad-tailed…
The non-asymptotic tail bounds of random variables play crucial roles in probability, statistics, and machine learning. Despite much success in developing upper bounds on tail probability in literature, the lower bounds on tail…
We give an upper bound on the total variation distance between the linear eigenvalue statistic, properly scaled and centred, of a random matrix with a variance profile and the standard Gaussian random variable. The second order Poincar\'e…
We propose a semiparametric method for fitting the tail of a heavy-tailed population given a relatively small sample from that population and a larger sample from a related background population. We model the tail of the small sample as an…
We study large deviation properties of probability distributions with either a compact support or a fat tail by comparing them with q-deformed exponential distributions. Our main result is a large deviation property for probability…
In this work, we propose an algorithm to simulate rare events for electronic circuit design. Our approach heavily relies on a smart use of importance sampling, which enables us to tackle probabilities of the magnitude 10 --10. Not only can…