Related papers: Probability and consequences of living inside a co…
In this paper we address the cosmic frequency of technological species. Recent advances in exoplanet studies provide strong constraints on all astrophysical terms in the Drake Equation. Using these and modifying the form and intent of the…
The Drake equation has been used many times to estimate the number of observable civilizations in the Galaxy. However, the uncertainty of the outcome is so great that any individual result is of limited use, as predictions can range from a…
This paper introduces foundations for a new kind of cosmology. We advocate that computer simulations are needed to address two key cosmological issues. First, the robustness of the emergence of complexity, which boils down to ask: "what…
The Simulation Argument has gained significant traction in the public arena. It has offered a hypothesis based on probabilistic analysis of its assumptions that we are likely to exist within a computer simulation. This has been derived from…
The Simulation Argument posed by Bostrom (2003) suggests that we may be living inside a sophisticated computer simulation. If post-human civilizations eventually have both the capability and desire to generate such Bostrom-like simulations,…
We calculate survival probability of a special state which couples randomly to a regular or chaotic environment. The environment is modelled by a suitably chosen random matrix ensemble. The exact results exhibit non--perturbative features…
Observable consequences of the hypothesis that the observed universe is a numerical simulation performed on a cubic space-time lattice or grid are explored. The simulation scenario is first motivated by extrapolating current trends in…
The Fermi paradox is the conflict between an expectation of a high {\em ex ante} probability of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe and the apparently lifeless universe we in fact observe. The expectation that the universe should be…
The transition from the quantum to the classical is governed by randomizing devices (RD), i.e., dynamical systems that are very sensitive to the environment. We show that, in the presence of RDs, the usual arguments based on the linearity…
How should we model an observer within quantum mechanics or quantum field theory? How can classical physics emerge from a quantum model, and why should classical probability be useful? How can we model a selective measurement entirely…
We argue that the quantum probability law follows, in the large N limit, from the compatibility of quantum mechanics with classical-like properties of macroscopic objects. For a finite sample, we find that likely and unlikely measurement…
Our predictions for particle physics processes are realized in a chain of complex simulators. They allow us to generate high-fidelity simulated data, but they are not well-suited for inference on the theory parameters with observed data. We…
The implicit theory that a simulation represents is precisely not in the individual choices but rather in the 'envelope' of possible trajectories - what is important is the shape of the whole envelope. Typically a huge amount of computation…
Monte Carlo simulations are based on the manipulation of random numbers to evaluate probable outcomes, with applicability in a variety of different fields. By assigning probabilities, which can be determined a priori, to various events, it…
In this article we demonstrate how algorithmic probability theory is applied to situations that involve uncertainty. When people are unsure of their model of reality, then the outcome they observe will cause them to update their beliefs. We…
The process of doing Science in condition of uncertainty is illustrated with a toy experiment in which the inferential and the forecasting aspects are both present. The fundamental aspects of probabilistic reasoning, also relevant in real…
The probabilities of point events in space 3 + 1 obey an equation of Dirac type. Masses, moments, energies, spins, etc. are the parameters of the probability distribution of such events. The terms and equations of quark-gluon theories turn…
Despite numerous countermeasures proposed by practitioners and researchers, remote control-flow alteration of programs with memory-safety vulnerabilities continues to be a realistic threat. Guaranteeing that complex software is completely…
We develop a systematic approach to quantum probability as a theory of rational betting in quantum gambles. In these games of chance the agent is betting in advance on the outcomes of several (finitely many) incompatible measurements. One…
Spekkens has introduced an epistemically restricted classical theory of discrete systems, based on discrete phase space. The theory manifests a number of quantum-like properties but cannot fully imitate quantum theory because it is…