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Measuring model risk is required by regulators on financial and insurance markets. We separate model risk into parameter estimation risk and model specification risk, and we propose expected shortfall type model risk measures applied to…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-10-29 Emese Lazar , Shuyuan Qi , Radu Tunaru

This paper considers the use for Value-at-Risk computations of the so-called Beta-Kotz distribution based on a general family of distributions including the classical Gaussian model. Actually, this work develops a new method for estimating…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-06-29 Jean-Michel Loubes , M Andrea Arias-Serna , Francisco Caro-Lopera

This paper is focused on the statistical analysis of probability measures $\nu_{1},\ldots,\nu_{n}$ on $\mathbb{R}$ that can be viewed as independent realizations of an underlying stochastic process. We consider the situation of practical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-03-30 Jérémie Bigot , Raúl Gouet , Thierry Klein , Alfredo López

We present the first minimax risk bounds for estimators of the spectral measure in multivariate linear factor models, where observations are linear combinations of regularly varying latent factors. Non-asymptotic convergence rates are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-12 Xuhui Zhang , Jose Blanchet , Youssef Marzouk , Viet Anh Nguyen , Sven Wang

This paper is concerned by the study of barycenters for random probability measures in the Wasserstein space. Using a duality argument, we give a precise characterization of the population barycenter for various parametric classes of random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-11-30 Jérémie Bigot , Thierry Klein

Distributed consensus in the Wasserstein metric space of probability measures on the real line is introduced in this work. Convergence of each agent's measure to a common measure is proven under a weak network connectivity condition. The…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-10-04 Adrian N. Bishop , Arnaud Doucet

We present a general framework for measuring the liquidity risk. The theoretical framework defines a class of risk measures that incorporate the liquidity risk into the standard risk measures. We consider a one-period risk measurement…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2016-10-31 Erindi Allaj

Value at Risk (VaR) and stress testing are two of the most widely used approaches in portfolio risk management to estimate potential market value losses under adverse market moves. VaR quantifies potential loss in value over a specified…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2024-10-01 Krishan Mohan Nagpal

In economics, insurance and finance, value at risk (VaR) is a widely used measure of the risk of loss on a specific portfolio of financial assets. For a given portfolio, time horizon, and probability $\alpha$, the $100\alpha\%$ VaR is…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-03-15 Raúl Torres , Rosa E. Lillo , Henry Laniado

We present a distribution optimization framework that significantly improves confidence bounds for various risk measures compared to previous methods. Our framework encompasses popular risk measures such as the entropic risk measure,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Hao Liang , Zhi-quan Luo

We study robust mean-variance optimization in multiperiod portfolio selection by allowing the true probability measure to be inside a Wasserstein ball centered at the empirical probability measure. Given the confidence level, the radius of…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-07-11 Xin Hai , Gregoire Loeper , Kihun Nam

In this paper, we focus on the analysis of the regularized Wasserstein barycenter problem. We provide uniqueness and a characterization of the barycenter for two important classes of probability measures: (i) Gaussian distributions and (ii)…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-08-09 S. Kum , M. H. Duong , Y. Lim , S. Yun

Risk management is very important for individual investors or companies. There are many ways to measure the risk of investment. Prices of risky assets vary rapidly and randomly due to the complexity of finance market. Random interval is a…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-07-26 Jinping Zhang , Keming Zhang

We propose a study of a distribution registration model for general deformation functions. In this framework, we provide estimators of the deformations as well as a goodness of fit test of the model. For this, we consider a criterion which…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-02 Eustasio Del Barrio , Hélène Lescornel , Jean-Michel Loubes

This paper investigates how to measure common market risk factors using newly proposed Panel Quantile Regression Model for Returns. By exploring the fact that volatility crosses all quantiles of the return distribution and using penalized…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2017-08-30 Frantisek Cech , Jozef Barunik

In this paper, we introduce a generalization of the Wasserstein barycenter, to a case where the initial probability measures live on different subspaces of R^d. We study the existence and uniqueness of this barycenter, we show how it is…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-21 Julie Delon , Nathaël Gozlan , Alexandre Saint-Dizier

Wasserstein barycentres represent average distributions between multiple probability measures for the Wasserstein distance. The numerical computation of Wasserstein barycentres is notoriously challenging. A common approach is to use…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-03-30 Eloi Tanguy , Julie Delon , Nathaël Gozlan

Recent financial disasters emphasised the need to investigate the consequence associated with the tail co-movements among institutions; episodes of contagion are frequently observed and increase the probability of large losses affecting…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-11-05 Mauro Bernardi , Ghislaine Gayraud , Lea Petrella

A common feature of methods for analyzing samples of probability density functions is that they respect the geometry inherent to the space of densities. Once a metric is specified for this space, the Fr\'echet mean is typically used to…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-12-20 Alexander Petersen , Hans-Georg Müller

We present a stochastic algorithm to compute the barycenter of a set of probability distributions under the Wasserstein metric from optimal transport. Unlike previous approaches, our method extends to continuous input distributions and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-08 Sebastian Claici , Edward Chien , Justin Solomon