Related papers: COVID-19: What If Immunity Wanes?
The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a policy making crisis where efforts to slow down or end the pandemic conflict with economic priorities. This paper provides mathematical analysis of optimal disease control policies with idealized…
Face mask use by the general public for limiting the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is controversial, though increasingly recommended, and the potential of this intervention is not well understood. We develop a compartmental model for…
Epidemic outbreaks pose significant challenges to public health and socio-economic stability, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of disease transmission dynamics and effective control strategies. This article discusses the…
We consider a possibility of socioeconomic collapse caused by the spread of epidemic. To this end, we exploit a simple SIS-like (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model with negative feedback between the infected population size and a…
The potential tradeoff between health outcomes and economic impact has been a major challenge in the policy making process during the COVID-19 pandemic. Epidemic-economic models designed to address this issue are either too aggregate to…
The sudden and rapid spread of the COVID_19 pandemic with its terrible consequences has put the management of governments and the various world institutions into a crisis. They have been subjected to a considerable economic effort to be…
Due to modern transportation networks (airplanes, cruise ships, etc.) an epidemic in a given country or city may be triggered by the arrival of external infected agents. Posterior government quarantine policies are usually taken in order to…
In this paper we introduce a compartmental epidemic model describing the transmission of the COVID-19 disease in presence of non-mandatory vaccination. The model takes into account the hesitancy and refusal of vaccination. To this aim, we…
The mobility patterns of individuals in China during the early outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic exhibit reversible changes -- in many regions, the mobility first decreased significantly and later restored. Based on this observation, here…
To date, the only effective means to respond to the spreading of COVID-19 pandemic are non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which entail policies to reduce social activity and mobility restrictions. Quantifying their effect is…
We identify the effectiveness of social distancing policies in reducing the transmission of the COVID-19 spread. We build a model that measures the relative frequency and geographic distribution of the virus growth rate and provides…
In this paper we analyze the effects of commuting and social inequalities for the epidemic development of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). With this aim we consider a SEIRD (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered and dead by disease)…
The spontaneous behavioral changes of the agents during an epidemic can have significant effects on the delay and the prevalence of its spread. In this work, we study a social distancing game among the agents of a population, who determine…
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused major disturbance to human life. An important reason behind the widespread social anxiety is the huge uncertainty about the pandemic. A fundamental uncertainty is how many or what percentage of people have…
In regard to infectious diseases socioeconomic determinants are strongly associated with differential exposure and susceptibility however they are seldom accounted for by standard compartmental infectious disease models. These associations…
It is well recognized that population heterogeneity plays an important role in the spread of epidemics. While individual variations in social activity are often assumed to be persistent, i.e. constant in time, here we discuss the…
Polarization of opinions about vaccination can have a negative impact on pandemic control. In this work we quantify this negative impact for the transmission of COVID-19, using an agent based simulation in an heterogeneous population with…
The Covid-19 pandemic is ongoing worldwide, and the damage it has caused is unprecedented. For prevention, South Korea has adopted a local quarantine strategy rather than a global lockdown. This approach not only minimizes economic damage,…
Successful predictive modeling of epidemics requires an understanding of the implicit feedback control strategies which are implemented by populations to modulate the spread of contagion. While this task of capturing endogenous behavior can…
We propose a tractable epidemic model that includes containment measures. In the absence of containment measures, the epidemics spread exponentially fast whenever the infectivity rate is positive, $\lambda>0$. The containment measures are…