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Affinity has proven to be a useful tool for quantifying the non-equilibrium character of time continuous Markov processes since it serves as a measure for the breaking of time reversal symmetry. It has recently been conjectured that the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-07-27 Matthias Uhl , Udo Seifert

We are interested in the asymptotic behavior of Markov chains on the set of positive integers for which, loosely speaking, large jumps are rare and occur at a rate that behaves like a negative power of the current state, and such that small…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-19 Jean Bertoin , Igor Kortchemski

The Chernoff bound is one of the most widely used tools in theoretical computer science. It's rare to find a randomized algorithm that doesn't employ a Chernoff bound in its analysis. The standard proofs of Chernoff bounds are beautiful but…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2026-02-10 William Kuszmaul

Convergence rates of Markov chains have been widely studied in recent years. In particular, quantitative bounds on convergence rates have been studied in various forms by Meyn and Tweedie [Ann. Appl. Probab. 4 (1994) 981-1101], Rosenthal…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 R. Douc , E. Moulines , Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

We consider continuous-space, discrete-time Markov chains on $\mathbb{R}^d$, that admit a finite number $N$ of metastable states. Our main motivation for investigating these processes is to analyse random Poincar\'e maps, which describe…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-19 Nils Berglund

We consider the problem of estimating the asymptotic variance of a function defined on a Markov chain, an important step for statistical inference of the stationary mean. We design a novel recursive estimator that requires $O(1)$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-09-24 Shubhada Agrawal , Prashanth L. A. , Siva Theja Maguluri

We study the rate of convergence of the Markov chain on $S_n$ which starts with a random $(n-k)$-cycle for a fixed $k \geq 1$, followed by random transpositions. The convergence to the stationary distribution turns out to be of order $n$.…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-03-26 Alperen Y. Özdemir

Recent research has made significant progress on the problem of bounding log partition functions for exponential family graphical models. Such bounds have associated dual parameters that are often used as heuristic estimates of the marginal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-19 Pradeep Ravikumar , John Lafferty

We prove that the sum of $t$ boolean-valued random variables sampled by a random walk on a regular expander converges in total variation distance to a discrete normal distribution at a rate of $O(\lambda/t^{1/2-o(1)})$, where $\lambda$ is…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-05-05 Louis Golowich

We study scaling limits of non-increasing Markov chains with values in the set of non-negative integers, under the assumption that the large jump events are rare and happen at rates that behave like a negative power of the current state. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-01-06 Bénédicte Haas , Grégory Miermont

We provide a general framework for computing upper bounds on mixing times of finite Markov chains when its minimal ideal is left zero. Our analysis is based on combining results by Brown and Diaconis with our previous work on stationary…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-04 John Rhodes , Anne Schilling

We generalise the coarse Ricci curvature method of Ollivier by considering the coarse Ricci curvature of multiple steps in the Markov chain. This implies new spectral bounds and concentration inequalities. We also extend this approach to…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-10-09 Daniel Paulin

A finite ergodic Markov chain is said to exhibit cutoff if its distance to stationarity remains close to 1 over a certain number of iterations and then abruptly drops to near 0 on a much shorter time scale. Discovered in the context of card…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-10 Anna Ben-Hamou , Justin Salez

This simple note lays out a few observations which are well known in many ways but may not have been said in quite this way before. The basic idea is that when comparing two different Markov chains it is useful to couple them is such a way…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-16 James E. Johndrow , Jonathan C. Mattingly

The switch chain is a well-known Markov chain for sampling directed graphs with a given degree sequence. While not ergodic in general, we show that it is ergodic for regular degree sequences. We then prove that the switch chain is rapidly…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2011-10-17 Catherine Greenhill

Let $P$ be the transition matrix of a finite, irreducible and reversible Markov chain. We say the continuous time Markov chain $X$ has transition matrix $P$ and speed $\lambda$ if it jumps at rate $\lambda$ according to the matrix $P$. Fix…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-26 Louigi Addario-Berry , Roberto I. Oliveira , Yuval Peres , Perla Sousi

We consider an elementary model for self-organised criticality, the activated random walk on the complete graph. We introduce a discrete time Markov chain as follows. At each time step, we add an active particle at a random vertex and let…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-08 Antal A. Járai , Christian Mönch , Lorenzo Taggi

In this paper we consider the convergence of the conditional entropy to the entropy rate for Markov chains. Convergence of certain statistics of long range dependent processes, such as the sample mean, is slow. It has been shown in Carpio…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-29 Andrew Feutrill , Matthew Roughan

This paper is a survey of various proofs of the so called {\em fundamental theorem of Markov chains}: every ergodic Markov chain has a unique positive stationary distribution and the chain attains this distribution in the limit independent…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-05 Somenath Biswas

We propose a new approach for estimating the finite dimensional transition matrix of a Markov chain using a large number of independent sample paths observed at random times. The sample paths may be observed as few as two times, and the…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-20 Daphne Aurouet , Valentin Patilea