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Causal inference is known to be very challenging when only observational data are available. Randomized experiments are often costly and impractical and in instrumental variable regression the number of instruments has to exceed the number…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-06-19 Dominik Rothenhäusler , Peter Bühlmann , Nicolai Meinshausen

Multiple imputation (MI) is a popular method for handling missing data. Auxiliary variables can be added to the imputation model(s) to improve MI estimates. However, the choice of which auxiliary variables to include in the imputation model…

A probabilistic model describes a system in its observational state. In many situations, however, we are interested in the system's response under interventions. The class of structural causal models provides a language that allows us to…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-01-20 Jonas Peters , Stefan Bauer , Niklas Pfister

Where performance comparison of healthcare providers is of interest, characteristics of both patients and the health condition of interest must be balanced across providers for a fair comparison. This is unlikely to be feasible within…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-09-04 Wendy J. Harrison , Paul D. Baxter , Mark S. Gilthorpe

The presence of unobserved common causes and measurement error poses two major obstacles to causal structure learning, since ignoring either source of complexity can induce spurious causal relations among variables of interest. We study…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-10 Yuqin Yang , Mohamed Nafea , Negar Kiyavash , Kun Zhang , AmirEmad Ghassami

Identifying latent variables and the causal structure involving them is essential across various scientific fields. While many existing works fall under the category of constraint-based methods (with e.g. conditional independence or rank…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Ignavier Ng , Xinshuai Dong , Haoyue Dai , Biwei Huang , Peter Spirtes , Kun Zhang

The inference of causal relationships using observational data from partially observed multivariate systems with hidden variables is a fundamental question in many scientific domains. Methods extracting causal information from conditional…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-13 Daniel Chicharro , Michel Besserve , Stefano Panzeri

Discovering causal relationships from observational data, particularly in the presence of latent variables, poses a challenging problem. While current local structure learning methods have proven effective and efficient when the focus lies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-07 Feng Xie , Zheng Li , Peng Wu , Yan Zeng , Chunchen Liu , Zhi Geng

Learning causal representations from observational and interventional data in the absence of known ground-truth graph structures necessitates implicit latent causal representation learning. Implicit learning of causal mechanisms typically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-19 Shayan Shirahmad Gale Bagi , Zahra Gharaee , Oliver Schulte , Mark Crowley

Measurement error is ubiquitous in many variables - from blood pressure recordings in physiology to intelligence measures in psychology. Structural equation models (SEMs) account for the process of measurement by explicitly distinguishing…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-28 Ankur Ankan , Inge Wortel , Kenneth A. Bollen , Johannes Textor

In high-dimensional data, structured noise caused by observed and unobserved factors affecting multiple target variables simultaneously, imposes a serious challenge for modeling, by masking the often weak signal. Therefore, (1) explaining…

Bivariate structural causal models (SCM) are often used to infer causal direction by examining their goodness-of-fit under restricted model classes. In this paper, we describe a parametrization of bivariate SCMs in terms of a causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-11 Johnny Xi , Hugh Dance , Peter Orbanz , Benjamin Bloem-Reddy

We define a model for the joint distribution of multiple continuous latent variables which includes a model for how their correlations depend on explanatory variables. This is motivated by and applied to social scientific research questions…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-27 Siliang Zhang , Jouni Kuha , Fiona Steele

Instrumental variable approaches have gained popularity for estimating causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounders. However, the availability of instrumental variables in the primary dataset is often challenged due to stringent…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Kang Shuai , Shanshan Luo , Wei Li , Yangbo He

Causal learning has long concerned itself with the accurate recovery of underlying causal mechanisms. Such causal modelling enables better explanations of out-of-distribution data. Prior works on causal learning assume that the high-level…

We consider causal models with two observed variables and one latent variables, each variable being discrete, with the goal of characterizing the possible distributions on outcomes that can result from controlling one of the observed…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-03-05 Kevin Shu

Schema-guided reasoning pipelines ask LLMs to produce explicit intermediate structures -- rubrics, checklists, verification queries -- before committing to a final decision. But do these structures causally determine the output, or merely…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-18 Oleg Somov , Mikhail Chaichuk , Mikhail Seleznyov , Alexander Panchenko , Elena Tutubalina

We consider the task of causal imputation, where we aim to predict the outcomes of some set of actions across a wide range of possible contexts. As a running example, we consider predicting how different drugs affect cells from different…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-19 Alvaro Ribot , Chandler Squires , Caroline Uhler

Instrumental variables are a popular study design for the estimation of treatment effects in the presence of unobserved confounders. In the canonical instrumental variables design, the instrument is a binary variable. In many settings,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-10 Prabrisha Rakshit , Alexander Levis , Luke Keele

As language models (LMs) deliver increasing performance on a range of NLP tasks, probing classifiers have become an indispensable technique in the effort to better understand their inner workings. A typical setup involves (1) defining an…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2024-08-01 Charles Jin , Martin Rinard