Related papers: A nucleation and growth model for COVID-19 epidemi…
The number of confirmed cases of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan has been increasing day by day and has had a serious impact on the society especially after the declaration of the state of emergency on April 7, 2020. This study…
Last time, an attempt was made to analyze the first wave of COVID-19 in Japan from February to May 2020 by the Avrami equation. This time, all infection waves that occurred repeatedly from February 2020 to September 2021 were simulated by…
COVID-19 has resulted in a public health global crisis. The pandemic control necessitates epidemic models that capture the trends and impacts on infectious individuals. Many exciting models can implement this but they lack practical…
COVID-19 is a global health crisis that has had unprecedented, widespread impact on households across the United States and has been declared a global pandemic on March 11, 2020 by World Health Organization (WHO) [1]. According to Centers…
As of May 2022, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) still has a severe global impact on people's lives. Previous studies have reported that COVID-19 decreased the electricity demand in early 2020. However, our study found that the…
The ongoing novel coronavirus epidemic has been announced a pandemic by the World Health Organization on March 11, 2020, and the Govt. of India has declared a nationwide lockdown from March 25, 2020, to prevent community transmission of…
In this note we analyze the temporal dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in China, Italy and France in the time window $22/01-09/03/2020$. A first analysis of simple day-lag maps points to some universality in the epidemic…
In this paper we introduce an agent-based model together with a particle filter approach for studying the spread of COVID-19. Investigations are performed on the metropolis of Tokyo, but other cities, regions or countries could have been…
The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in December 2019, progressed in a complicated manner and thus caused problems worldwide. Seeking clues to the reasons for the complicated progression is necessary but challenging in the fight against the…
In this paper we propose an epidemiological model for the spread of COVID-19. The dynamics of the spread is based on four fundamental categories of people in a population: Tested and infected, Non-Tested but infected, Tested but not…
We review epidemiological models for the propagation of the COVID-19 pandemic during the early months of the outbreak: from February to May 2020. The aim is to propose a methodological review that highlights the following characteristics:…
To increase situational awareness and support evidence-based policy-making, we formulated two types of mathematical models for COVID-19 transmission within a regional population. One is a fitting function that can be calibrated to reproduce…
In this paper, we model the trajectory of the cumulative confirmed cases and deaths of COVID-19 (in log scale) via a piecewise linear trend model. The model naturally captures the phase transitions of the epidemic growth rate via…
Phenomenological and deterministic models are often used for the estimation of transmission parameters in an epidemic and for the prediction of its growth trajectory. Such analyses are usually based on single peak outbreak dynamics. In…
The purpose of this study was to simulate all COVID-19 infection waves in Tokyo, the capital of Japan, by phase transformation dynamics theory, and to quantitatively analyze the detailed structure of the waveform for estimating the cause.…
Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 all across the globe, we have performed simulations of a system dynamic epidemic spread model in different possible situations. The simulation, not only captures the model dynamic of the spread of…
Understanding dynamics of an outbreak like that of COVID-19 is important in designing effective control measures. This study aims to develop an agent based model that compares changes in infection progression by manipulating different…
This study analyzed the morbidity and mortality rates of the COVID-19 pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. Under the constraint that daily maximum confirmed deaths and daily maximum cases should exceed 4 and 10, respectively, 14…
A major difficulty to estimate $R$ (the effective reproducing number) of COVID-19 is that most cases of COVID-19 infection are mild or asymptomatic, therefore true number of infection is difficult to determine. This paper estimates the…
The discovery of SARS-CoV-2, the responsible virus for the Covid-19 epidemic, has sparked a global health concern with many countries affected. Developing models that can interpret the epidemic and give common trend parameters are useful…