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The epidemiology has recently witnessed great advances based on computational models. Its scope and impact are getting wider thanks to the new data sources feeding analytical frameworks and models. Besides traditional variables considered…

The outbreak of an infectious disease in a human population can lead to individuals responding with preventive measures in an attempt to avoid getting infected. This leads to changes in contact patterns. However, as we show in this paper,…

A key problem in modelling the evolution dynamics of infectious diseases is the mathematical representation of the mechanism of transmission of the contagion. Models with a finite number of subpopulations can be described via systems of…

Mathematical models are increasing adopted for setting targets for disease prevention and control. As model-informed policies are implemented, however, the inaccuracies of some forecasts become apparent, for example overprediction of…

It is often useful to represent the infectious dynamics of mobile agents by metapopulation models. In such a model, metapopulations form a static network, and individuals migrate from one metapopulation to another. It is known that…

Stochasticity and spatial heterogeneity are of great interest recently in studying the spread of an infectious disease. The presented method solves an inverse problem to discover the effectively decisive topology of a heterogeneous network…

Epidemic spreading of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and has often considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and demands for a…

Many models of epidemic spread have a common qualitative structure. The numbers of infected individuals during the initial stages of an epidemic can be well approximated by a branching process, after which the proportion of individuals that…

Epidemics are emergent phenomena depending on the epidemiological characteristics of pathogens and the interaction and movement of people. Public transit systems have provided much important information about the movement of people, but…

Many pathogens spread primarily via direct contact between infected and susceptible hosts. Thus, the patterns of contacts or contact network of a population fundamentally shapes the course of epidemics. While there is a robust and growing…

In this paper, we focus on susceptible-infected-susceptible dynamics on metapopulation networks, where nodes represent subpopulations, and where agents diffuse and interact. Recent studies suggest that heterogeneous network structure…

We study the dynamics of epidemic spreading processes aimed at spontaneous dissemination of information updates in populations with complex connectivity patterns. The influence of the topological structure of the network in these processes…

Changes in human behavior are increasingly recognized as a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Although collective activity can be modified through imposed measures to control epidemic progression, spontaneous changes can also arise as…

We investigate the effects of risk perception in a simple model of epidemic spreading. We assume that the perception of the risk of being infected depends on the fraction of neighbors that are ill. The effect of this factor is to decrease…

Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…

We study the effect of the connectivity pattern of complex networks on the propagation dynamics of epidemics. The growth time scale of outbreaks is inversely proportional to the network degree fluctuations, signaling that epidemics spread…

We investigate the effects of heterogeneous and clustered contact patterns on the timescale and final size of infectious disease epidemics. The abundance of transitive relationships (the number of 3 cliques) in a network and the variance of…

A key scientific challenge during the outbreak of novel infectious diseases is to predict how the course of the epidemic changes under different countermeasures that limit interaction in the population. Most epidemiological models do not…

Contagious processes, such as spread of infectious diseases, social behaviors, or computer viruses, affect biological, social, and technological systems. Epidemic models for large populations and finite populations on networks have been…

It is generally accepted that scale-free networks is prone to epidemic spreading allowing the onset of large epidemics whatever the spreading rate of the infection. In the paper, we show that disease propagation may be suppressed in…