Related papers: What can we learn about SARS-CoV-2 prevalence from…
Intent of this research is to explore how mathematical models, specifically Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model, can be utilized to forecast peak outbreak timeline of COVID-19 epidemic amongst a population of interest starting from the…
The development and authorization of COVID-19 vaccines has provided the clearest path forward to eliminate community spread hence end the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. However, the limited pace at which the vaccine can be administered…
The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, which emerged in late 2019, has since spread around the world and infected hundreds of millions of people with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). While this viral species was unknown prior to January…
The infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is one of the measures of disease impact that can be of importance for policy making. Here we show that many of the studies on which these estimates are based are scientifically flawed for…
Vaccines are among the most powerful tools used to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. They are highly effective against infection and substantially reduce the risk of severe disease, hospitalization, ICU admission, and death. However, their…
Pavelka et al. (Science, Reports, 7 May 2021) claim that a single round of population-wide antigen testing in Slovakia reduced the observed COVID-19 prevalence by 58%, and that it played a substantial role in curbing the pandemic. We argue…
Due to its high lethality amongst the elderly, the safety of nursing homes has been of central importance during the COVID-19 pandemic. With test procedures becoming available at scale, such as antigen or RT-LAMP tests, and increasing…
The world is suffering from a pandemic called COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. National governments have problems evaluating the reach of the epidemic, due to having limited resources and tests at their disposal. This problem is…
Several SARS-CoV-2 variants that evolved during the COVID-19 pandemic have appeared to differ in severity, based on analyses of single-country datasets. With decreased SARS-CoV-2 testing and sequencing, international collaborative studies…
We generalize the Susceptible-Infected-Removed model for epidemics to take into account generic effects of heterogeneity in the degree of susceptibility to infection in the population. We introduce a single new parameter corresponding to a…
The clinical spectrum of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the strain of coronavirus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic, is broad, extending from asymptomatic infection to severe immunopulmonary reactions that, if…
The COVID-19 pandemic is spreading rapidly around the world, causing countries to impose lockdowns and efforts to develop vaccines on a global scale. However, human-to-animal and animal-to-human transmission cannot be ignored, as severe…
In December 2019, a newly discovered SARS-CoV-2 virus was emerged from China and propagated worldwide as a pandemic. In the absence of preventive medicine or a ready to use vaccine, mathematical models can provide useful scientific insights…
Since the beginning of 2020, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread rapidly in the city of Wuhan, P.R. China, and subsequently, across the world. The swift spread of the virus is largely attributed to its stealth transmissions…
Testing individuals for pathogens can affect the spread of epidemics. Understanding how individual-level processes of sampling and reporting test results can affect community- or population-level spread is a dynamical modeling question. The…
Accurate forecasts for COVID-19 are necessary for better preparedness and resource management. Specifically, deciding the response over months or several months requires accurate long-term forecasts which is particularly challenging as the…
The world is still struggling in controlling and containing the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The medical conditions associated with SARS-CoV-2 infections have resulted in a surge in the number of patients…
We demonstrate the ability of statistical data assimilation to identify the measurements required for accurate state and parameter estimation in an epidemiological model for the novel coronavirus disease COVID-19. Our context is an effort…
Without a cure, vaccine, or proven long-term immunity against SARS-CoV-2, test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) strategies present a promising tool to contain its spread. For any TTI strategy, however, mitigation is challenged by pre- and…
We present a method for efficient estimation of the prevalence of infection in a population with high accuracy using only a small number of tests. The presented approach uses pool testing with a mix of pool sizes of various sizes. The test…