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This paper introduces a class of Monte Carlo algorithms which are based upon the simulation of a Markov process whose quasi-stationary distribution coincides with a distribution of interest. This differs fundamentally from, say, current…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-14 Murray Pollock , Paul Fearnhead , Adam M. Johansen , Gareth O. Roberts

Brute-force simulations for dynamics on very large networks are quite expensive. While phenomenological treatments may capture some macroscopic properties, they often ignore important microscopic details. Fortunately, one may be only…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-05-17 Chuansheng Shen , Hanshuang Chen , Zhonghuai Hou , Jürgen Kurths

The aim of this paper is to describe a new an integrated methodology for project control under uncertainty. This proposal is based on Earned Value Methodology and risk analysis and presents several refinements to previous methodologies.…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-06 Fernando Acebes , M Pereda , David Poza , Javier Pajares , Jose M Galan

Many random processes can be simulated as the output of a deterministic model accepting random inputs. Such a model usually describes a complex mathematical or physical stochastic system and the randomness is introduced in the input…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-11-21 A. Gokcen Mahmutoglu , Alper T. Erdogan , Alper Demir

This paper develops a new global optimisation method that applies to a family of criteria that are not entirely known. This family includes the criteria obtained from the class of posteriors that have nor-malising constants that are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-16 R. Stoica , Madalina Deaconu , Anne Philippe , Lluis Hurtado

We explain why quantum adiabatic evolution and simulated annealing perform similarly in certain examples of searching for the minimum of a cost function of n bits. In these examples each bit is treated symmetrically so the cost function…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Edward Farhi , Jeffrey Goldstone , Sam Gutmann

There is increasing interest to develop Bayesian inferential algorithms for point process models with intractable likelihoods. A purpose of this paper is to illustrate the utility of using simulation based strategies, including Approximate…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-02 Chaoyi Lu , Nial Friel

Population annealing is a hybrid of sequential and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods geared towards the efficient parallel simulation of systems with complex free-energy landscapes. Systems with first-order phase transitions are among the…

Computational Physics · Physics 2017-04-07 Lev Yu. Barash , Martin Weigel , Lev N. Shchur , Wolfhard Janke

Generalising the idea of the classical EM algorithm that is widely used for computing maximum likelihood estimates, we propose an EM-Control (EM-C) algorithm for solving multi-period finite time horizon stochastic control problems. The new…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2016-11-08 Steven Kou , Xianhua Peng , Xingbo Xu

We propose a weighting scheme for the proposals within Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and show how this can improve statistical efficiency at no extra computational cost. These methods are most powerful when combined with…

Computation · Statistics 2015-07-01 Espen Bernton , Shihao Yang , Yang Chen , Neil Shephard , Jun S. Liu

We introduce a new algorithm for the simulation of Euclidean dynamical triangulations that mimics the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, but where all proposed moves are accepted. This rejection-free algorithm allows for the factorization of…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2023-09-22 Mingwei Dai , Walter Freeman , Jack Laiho , Marc Schiffer , Judah Unmuth-Yockey

The Reversible Jump algorithm is one of the most widely used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian estimation and model selection. A generalized multiple-try version of this algorithm is proposed. The algorithm is based on…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-10-14 S. Pandolfi , F. Bartolucci , N. Friel

We consider the university course timetabling problem, which is one of the most studied problems in educational timetabling. In particular, we focus our attention on the formulation known as the curriculum-based course timetabling problem,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-07-09 Ruggero Bellio , Sara Ceschia , Luca Di Gaspero , Andrea Schaerf , Tommaso Urli

We present a two-stage Metropolis-Hastings algorithm for sampling probabilistic models, whose log-likelihood is computationally expensive to evaluate, by using a surrogate Gaussian Process (GP) model. The key feature of the approach, and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-09-29 Alessio Benavoli , Jason Wyse , Arthur White

Preconditioning is a common method applied to modify Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms with the goal of making them more efficient. In practice it is often extremely effective, even when the preconditioner is learned from the chain. We…

Computation · Statistics 2026-02-12 Max Hird , Florian Maire , Jeffrey Negrea

We show that for any multiple-try Metropolis algorithm, one can always accept the proposal and evaluate the importance weight that is needed to correct for the bias without extra computational cost. This results in a general, convenient,…

Computation · Statistics 2024-10-03 Guanxun Li , Aaron Smith , Quan Zhou

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms provide a very general recipe for estimating properties of complicated distributions. While their use has become commonplace and there is a large literature on MCMC theory and practice, MCMC users…

Computation · Statistics 2012-05-03 Murali Haran , Luke Tierney

The goal of our research was to enhance local search heuristics used to construct Latin Hypercube Designs. First, we introduce the \textit{1D-move} perturbation to improve the space exploration performed by these algorithms. Second, we…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-08-26 Pierre Bergé , Kaourintin Le Guiban , Arpad Rimmel , Joanna Tomasik

The Metropolis algorithm is a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm used to simulate from parameter distributions of interest, such as generalized linear model parameters. The "Metropolis step" is a keystone concept that underlies…

Computation · Statistics 2023-08-31 Alexander P Keil , Jessie K Edwards , Ashley I Naimi , Stephen R Cole

Multilevel techniques are efficient approaches for solving the large linear systems that arise from discretized partial differential equations and other problems. While geometric multigrid requires detailed knowledge about the underlying…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-01-23 Tareq. U. Zaman , Scott P. MacLachlan , Luke N. Olson , Matt West