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We propose a Bayesian Heterogeneity Learning approach for Susceptible-Infected-Removal-Susceptible (SIRS) model that allows underlying clustering patterns for transmission rate, recovery rate, and loss of immunity rate for the latest…
One of the popular dynamics on complex networks is the epidemic spreading. An epidemic model describes how infections spread throughout a network. Among the compartmental models used to describe epidemics, the…
The vaccination against ongoing epidemics is seldom compulsory but remains one of the most classical means to fight epidemic propagation. However recent debates concerning the innocuity of vaccines and their risk with respect to the risk of…
We develop an analytical approach to the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model that allows us to unravel the true origin of the absence of an epidemic threshold in heterogeneous networks. We find that a delicate balance…
We construct an SIR-type model for COVID-19, incorporating as a parameter the susceptible individuals' cautiousness level. We determine the model's basic reproduction number, study the stability of the equilibria analytically, and perform a…
This article is devoted to the analysis of a particle system model for epidemics among a finite population with susceptible, infective and removed individuals (SIR). The infection mechanism depends on the relative distance between…
Risk-driven behavior provides a feedback mechanism through which individuals both shape and are collectively affected by an epidemic. We introduce a general and flexible compartmental model to study the effect of heterogeneity in the…
We study the phase transition from the persistence phase to the extinction phase for the SIRS (susceptible/ infected/ refractory/ susceptible) model of diseases spreading on the networks. We derive an analytical expression of the…
Infectious pathogens often propagate by superspreading, which focusses onward transmission on disproportionately few infected individuals. At the same time, infector-infectee pairs tend to have more similar transmission potentials than…
This document aims to estimate and describe the effects of the social distancing measures implemented in several countries with the expectancy of controlling the spread of COVID-19. The procedure relies on the classic…
Cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation leverages recency test results to determine the HIV incidence of a population of interest, where recency test uses biomarker profiles to infer whether an HIV-positive individual was "recently"…
In this paper we consider SIR epidemics on random graphs with clustering. To incorporate group structure of the underlying social network, we use a generalized version of the configuration model in which each node is a member of a specified…
Most infectious diseases including more than half of known human pathogens are not restricted to just one host, yet much of the mathematical modeling of infections has been limited to a single species. We investigate consequences of a…
The goal of this work is to consider widespread use of face masks as a non-pharmaceutical control strategy for the Covid-19 pandemic. A SEIR model that divides the population into individuals that wear masks and those that do not is…
In this study we analyze the evolution of the effective reproduction number, $R$, through a SIR spreading process in heterogeneous networks; Characterizing its decay process allows to analytically study the effects of countermeasures on the…
Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…
The generation interval is the time between the infection time of an infected person and the infection time of his or her infector. Probability density functions for generation intervals have been an important input for epidemic models and…
In this paper we consider a model for the spread of a stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemic on a network of individuals described by a random intersection graph. Individuals belong to a random number of…
We propose a mathematical model to analyze the effects of anti-infection behavior on the equilibrium states of an infectious disease. The anti-infection behavior is incorporated into a classical epidemiological SIR model, by considering the…
Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing…