Related papers: A branching process with contact tracing
We introduce a Reed-Frost epidemic model with recursive contact tracing and asymptomatic transmission. This generalizes the branching-process model introduced by the authors in a previous work [arxiv:2004.07237] to finite populations and…
We study branching diffusions in a bounded domain $D$ of $\mathbb{R}^d$ in which particles are killed upon hitting the boundary $\partial D$. It is known that any such process undergoes a phase transition when the branching rate $\beta$…
We consider the long-term behaviour of critical multitype branching processes conditioned on non-extinction, both with respect to the forward and the ancestral processes. Forward in time, we prove a functional limit theorem in the space of…
We provide sufficient conditions for polynomial rate of convergence in the weak law of large numbers for supercritical general indecomposable multi-type branching processes. The main result is derived by investigating the embedded…
We aim to understand the evolution of the genetic composition of cancer cell populations. To achieve this, we consider an individual-based model representing a cell population where cells divide, die and mutate along the edges of a finite…
This note gives an exponential tail approximation for the extinction time of a subcritical multitype branching process arising from the SIR epidemic model on a random graph with given degrees, where the type corresponds to the vertex…
A phylogenetic tree shows the evolutionary relationships among species. Internal nodes of the tree represent speciation events and leaf nodes correspond to species. A goal of phylogenetics is to combine such trees into larger trees, called…
We consider a critical branching process in an i.i.d. random environment, in which one immigrant arrives at each generation. We are interested in the event $\mathcal{A}_i(n)$ that all individuals alive at time $n$ are offspring of the…
Understanding the evolution of binary traits, which affects the birth and survival of species and also the rate of molecular evolution, remains challenging. A typical example is the evolution of mating systems in plant species. In this…
Generating function equation has been derived for the probability distribution of the number of nodes with $k \ge 0$ outgoing lines in randomly evolving special trees. The stochastic properties of end-nodes (k=0) have been analyzed, and it…
We propose the following simple stochastic model for phylogenetic trees. New types are born and die according to a birth and death chain. At each birth we associate a fitness to the new type sampled from a fixed distribution. At each death…
We introduce a model of biological evolution where species evolve in response to biotic interactions and a fluctuating environmental stress. The species may either become extinct or mutate to acquire a new fitness value when the effective…
We present simulation results for the contact process on regular, cubic networks that are composed of a one-dimensional lattice and a set of long edges with unbounded length. Networks with different sets of long edges are considered, that…
In numerous papers, the behaviour of stochastic population models is investigated through the sign of a real quantity which is the growth rate of the population near the extinction set. In many cases, it is proven that when this growth rate…
We consider a random walk on top of the contact process on $\mathbb{Z}^d$ with $d\geq 1$. In particular, we focus on the "contact process as seen from the random walk". Under the assumption that the infection rate of the contact process is…
In this note, we study the asymptotic behaviour near extinction of (sub-) critical continuous state branching processes. In particular, we establish an analogue of Khintchin's law of the iterated logarithm near extinction time for a…
We study the asymptotic behaviour of the survival probability of a multitype branching process in random environment. The class of processes we consider here corresponds, in the one-dimensional situation, to the strongly subcritical case.…
We consider the branching process in random environment $\{Z_n\}_{n\geq 0}$, which is a~population growth process where individuals reproduce independently of each other with the reproduction law randomly picked at each generation. We focus…
The constant rate birth--death process is a popular null model for speciation and extinction. If one removes extinct and non-sampled lineages, this process induces `reconstructed trees' which describe the relationship between extant…
We consider an exponentially growing population of cells undergoing mutations and ask about the effect of reproductive fluctuations (genetic drift) on its long-term evolution. We combine first step analysis with the stochastic dynamics of a…