Related papers: Exact closed-form solution of a modified SIR model

Containment measures implemented by some countries to suppress the spread of COVID-19 have resulted in a slowdown of the epidemic characterized by time series of daily infections plateauing over extended periods of time. We prove that such…

Authors Yi-Cheng Chen, Ping-En Lu, Cheng-Shang Chang, and Tzu-Hsuan Liu use the Finite Impulse Response (FIR) linear system filtering method to track and predict the number of people infected and recovered from COVID-19, in a pandemic…

I estimate the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). The transmission rate is heterogeneous across countries and far exceeds the recovery rate, which enables a fast spread. In the…

The basic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is extended to include effects of progressive social awareness, lockdowns and anthropogenic migration. It is found that social awareness can effectively contain the spread by lowering the…

Social distancing has been enacted in order to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. Like many authors, we adopt the classic epidemic SIR model, where the infection rate is the control variable. Its differential flatness property yields ele…

Our study is based on an epidemiological compartmental model, the SIRS model. In the SIRS model, each individual is in one of the states susceptible (S), infected(I) or recovered (R), depending on its state of health. In compartment R, an…

The aim of this study is to propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model that describes the behaviour of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized patients of COVID-19 epidemic, including the effect of demographic…

In this work, we review the figures used to characterize an epidemic outbreak most. Particular attention is drawn to epidemic spreading at time-varying transition rates. A time-varying SIR-like model is used to describe the epidemic…

It is important to study the global behavior of solutions to systems of ordinary differential equations describing the transmission dynamics of infectious disease. In this paper, we present a different approach from the Lyapunov function…

In this work, we study the epidemic SIR model on a system which takes into consideration face-to-face interaction networks. This approach has been used as prototype to describe people interactions in different kinds of social organizations…

In this paper we generalise a simple discrete time stochastic SIR type model defined by Tuckwell and Williams. The SIR model by Tuckwell and Williams assumes a homogeneous population, a fixed infectious period, and a strict transition from…

Motivated by the ongoing pandemic COVID-19, we propose a closed-loop framework that combines inference from testing data, learning the parameters of the dynamics and optimal resource allocation for controlling the spread of the…

This paper analyses the optimal control of infectious disease propagation using a classic susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model characterised by permanent immunity and the absence of available vaccines. The control is performed over a…

We consider Markovian susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) dynamics on time-invariant weighted contact networks where the infection and removal processes are Poisson and where network links may be directed or undirected. We prove that a…

The rapid spread of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) confronts policy makers with the problem of measuring the effectiveness of containment strategies, balancing public health considerations with the economic costs of social distancing measures.…

We study two simple mathematical models of the epidemic. At first, we study the repetitive infection spreading in a simplified SIRS model including the effect of the decay of the acquired immune. The model is an intermediate model of the…

We describe the population-based SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infected, removed) model developed by the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG), which advises the Irish government on COVID-19 responses. The model assumes a…

We present a modified age-structured SIR model based on known patterns of social contact and distancing measures within Washington, USA. We find that population age-distribution has a significant effect on disease spread and mortality rate,…

This paper presents a vaccination-based control strategy for a SEIR (susceptible plus infected plus infectious plus removed populations) propagation disease model. The model takes into account the total population amounts as a refrain for…

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the need to improve the modeling, estimation, and prediction of how infectious diseases spread. SEIR-like models have been particularly successful in providing accurate short-term predictions. This study…