Related papers: Renormalisation Group approach to pandemics as a t…
In this paper, we present a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model with individuals wearing facial masks and individuals who do not. The disease transmission rates, the recovering rates and the fraction of individuals who wear masks are…
The SIR pandemic model suffers from an unrealistic assumption: The rate of removal from the infectious class of individuals is assumed to be proportional to the number of infectious individuals. This means that a change in the rate of…
We have developed a globally applicable diagnostic Covid-19 model by augmenting the classical SIR epidemiological model with a neural network module. Our model does not rely upon previous epidemics like SARS/MERS and all parameters are…
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for quantitative modeling and analysis to understand real-world disease dynamics. In particular, post hoc analyses using compartmental models offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of…
To describe the dynamics of social distancing during pandemics, we follow previous efforts to combine basic epidemiology models (e.g. SIR - Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered) with game and economy theory tools. We present an extension of…
The global pandemic due to the outbreak of COVID-19 ravages the whole world for more than two years in which all the countries are suffering a lot since December 2019. In order to control this ongoing waves of epidemiological infections,…
Throughout human history, epidemics have been a constant presence. Understanding their dynamics is essential to predict scenarios and make substantiated decisions. Mathematical models are powerful tools to describe an epidemic behavior.…
This document aims to estimate and describe the effects of the social distancing measures implemented in several countries with the expectancy of controlling the spread of COVID-19. The procedure relies on the classic…
A stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a social network is analysed. The underlying social network is described by an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph but, during the course of the epidemic,…
The presence of a large number of infected individuals with few or no symptoms is an important epidemiological difficulty and the main mathematical feature of COVID-19. The A-SIR model, i.e. a SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) model with a…
We investigate an epidemic model based on Bailey's continuous differential system. In the continuous time domain, we extend the classical model to time-dependent coefficients and present an alternative solution method to Gleissner's…
We present a simple analytical model to describe the fast increase of deaths produced by the corona virus (COVID-19) infections. The 'D' (deaths) model comes from a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model known…
This paper presents a detailed mathematical investigation into the dynamics of COVID-19 infections through extended Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological models. By…
The outbreaks of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) have impacted the world significantly. Modeling the trend of infection and real-time forecasting of cases can help decision making and control of the disease spread. However, data-driven…
Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing…
To model the evolution of diseases with extended latency periods and the presence of asymptomatic patients like COVID-19, we define a simple discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model. We include both latent periods as well as the…
The COVID-19 outbreak has stimulated the interest in the proposal of novel epidemiological models to predict the course of the epidemic so as to help planning effective control strategies. In particular, in order to properly interpret the…
The Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) epidemiological model is one of the standard models of disease spreading. Here we analyse an extended SEIR model that accounts for asymptomatic carriers, believed to play an important role…
We investigate final outcome properties of an SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a population of large sub-communities in which there is stronger disease transmission within the communities than…
Although we have made progress in understanding disease spread in complex systems with non-Poissonian activity patterns, current models still fail to capture the full range of recovery time distributions. In this paper, we propose an…