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Recently, Neural Ordinary Differential Equations has emerged as a powerful framework for modeling physical simulations without explicitly defining the ODEs governing the system, but instead learning them via machine learning. However, the…

We address the problem of Bayesian inference for parameters in ordinary differential equation (ODE) models based on observational data. Conventional approaches in this setting typically rely on numerical solvers such as the Euler or…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Shoji Toyota , Yuto Miyatake

State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-11-04 Roger Frigola , Yutian Chen , Carl E. Rasmussen

Sequential Bayesian Filtering aims to estimate the current state distribution of a Hidden Markov Model, given the past observations. The problem is well-known to be intractable for most application domains, except in notable cases such as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-16 Théophile Cantelobre , Carlo Ciliberto , Benjamin Guedj , Alessandro Rudi

We propose a gate-based quantum algorithm for the prediction step of Bayesian state estimation based on the Fokker-Planck equation on a discretized position-velocity state space. The probability density is encoded in the amplitudes of a…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-04-28 Felix Govaers

We provide a comprehensive overview and tooling for GP modeling with non-Gaussian likelihoods using state space methods. The state space formulation allows for solving one-dimensional GP models in $\mathcal{O}(n)$ time and memory…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-06 Hannes Nickisch , Arno Solin , Alexander Grigorievskiy

The convolution method for the numerical solution of forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDEs), introduced in [21], uses a uniform space grid. In this paper we utilize a tree-like spatial discretization that approximates…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-05-23 Polynice Oyono Ngou , Cody Hyndman

Modeling complex systems using standard neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) often faces some essential challenges, including high computational costs and susceptibility to local optima. To address these challenges, we propose a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-24 Xin Li , Jingdong Zhang , Qunxi Zhu , Chengli Zhao , Xue Zhang , Xiaojun Duan , Wei Lin

We introduce ODE-GS, a novel approach that integrates 3D Gaussian Splatting with latent neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to enable future extrapolation of dynamic 3D scenes. Unlike existing dynamic scene reconstruction methods,…

Graphics · Computer Science 2026-04-28 Daniel Wang , Patrick Rim , Tian Tian , Dong Lao , Alex Wong , Ganesh Sundaramoorthi

Bayesian estimation is a vital tool in robotics as it allows systems to update the robot state belief using incomplete information from noisy sensors. To render the state estimation problem tractable, many systems assume that the motion and…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-01-13 Miguel Saavedra-Ruiz , Steven A. Parkison , Ria Arora , James Richard Forbes , Liam Paull

We consider filtering for a continuous-time, or asynchronous, stochastic system where the full distribution over states is too large to be stored or calculated. We assume that the rate matrix of the system can be compactly represented and…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2012-02-20 E. Busra Celikkaya , Christian R. Shelton , William Lam

We consider the utilization of a computational model to guide the optimal acquisition of experimental data to inform the stochastic description of model input parameters. Our formulation is based on the recently developed consistent…

Computation · Statistics 2021-05-04 Scott N. Walsh , Tim M. Wildey , John D. Jakeman

Background: Mathematical models based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are essential tools across various scientific disciplines, including biology, ecology, and healthcare informatics. They are used to simulate complex dynamic…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2025-09-03 Hamed Karami , Amanda Bleichrodt , Ruiyan Luo , Gerardo Chowell

We present a novel model Graph Neural Stochastic Differential Equations (Graph Neural SDEs). This technique enhances the Graph Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (Graph Neural ODEs) by embedding randomness into data representation using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-25 Richard Bergna , Felix Opolka , Pietro Liò , Jose Miguel Hernandez-Lobato

Smoothing algorithms for state-space models, i.e., fixed-interval smoothing, fixed-lag smoothing, and two-filter formula for smoothing, are examined using real examples. For linear and Gaussian state-space models, it is observed that…

Computation · Statistics 2023-07-10 G. Kitagawa

Bayesian filtering is a general framework for recursively estimating the state of a dynamical system. Classical solutions such that Kalman filter and Particle filter are introduced in this report. Gaussian processes have been introduced as…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2010-11-04 Mr. Chong Han , Dr. Ido Nevat , Dr. Gareth Peters , Prof. Jinhong Yuan

Statistical regression models whose mean functions are represented by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) can be used to describe phenomenons dynamical in nature, which are abundant in areas such as biology, climatology and genetics. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-05-15 Kyoungjae Lee , Jaeyong Lee , Sarat C. Dass

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-01-18 Mengwu Guo , Shane A. McQuarrie , Karen E. Willcox

Stochastic inference on Lie groups plays a key role in state estimation problems such as; inertial navigation, visual inertial odometry, pose estimation in virtual reality, etc. A key problem is fusing independent concentrated Gaussian…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-26 Yixiao Ge , Pieter van Goor , Robert Mahony

General Stochastic Hybrid Systems (GSHS) have been formulated to represent various types of uncertainties in hybrid dynamical systems. In this paper, we propose computational techniques for Bayesian estimation of GSHS. In particular, the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-03-04 Weixin Wang , Taeyoung Lee