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Related papers: Adjusted Expected Shortfall

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This paper generalizes results concerning strong convexity of two-stage mean-risk models with linear recourse to distortion risk measures. Introducing the concept of (restricted) partial strong convexity, we conduct an in-depth analysis of…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-12-20 Matthias Claus , Kai Spürkel

A novel forecast combination and weighted quantile based tail-risk forecasting framework is proposed, aiming to reduce the impact of modelling uncertainty in tail-risk forecasting. The proposed approach is based on a two-step estimation…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-07-20 Giuseppe Storti , Chao Wang

In this paper, we develop the lower and upper bounds of worst-case distortion riskmetrics and weighted entropy for unimodal, and symmetric unimodal distributions when mean and variance information are available. We also consider the sharp…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2025-11-24 Baishuai Zuo , Chuancun Yin

The study of systemic risk is often presented through the analysis of several measures referring to quantities used by practitioners and policy makers. Almost invariably, those measures evaluate the size of the impact that exogenous events…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-04-13 Luka Klinčić , Vinko Zlatić , Guido Caldarelli , Hrvoje Štefančić

Risk is an inherent feature of agricultural production and marketing and accurate measurement of it helps inform more efficient use of resources. This paper examines three tail quantile-based risk measures applied to the estimation of…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2011-03-31 John Cotter , Kevin Dowd , Wyn Morgan

This paper investigates performance attribution measures as a basis for constraining portfolio optimization. We employ optimizations that minimize expected tail loss and investigate both asset allocation (AA) and the selection effect (SE)…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-03-09 Yuan Hu , W. Brent Lindquist

We introduce the formalism of generalized Fourier transforms in the context of risk management. We develop a general framework to efficiently compute the most popular risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall (also known as…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2012-05-08 G. Bormetti , V. Cazzola , G. Livan , G. Montagna , O. Nicrosini

This paper discusses an alternative explanation for the empirical findings contradicting the positive relationship between risk (variance) and reward (expected return). We show that these contradicting results might be due to the false…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2017-04-19 Mihaly Ormos , Dusan Timotity

Computation of extreme quantiles and tail-based risk measures using standard Monte Carlo simulation can be inefficient. A method to speed up computations is provided by importance sampling. We show that importance sampling algorithms,…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-21 Henrik Hult , Jens Svensson

We introduce a semiparametric approach for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) by modeling the conditional scale of financial returns, defined as the difference between two specified quantiles, via restricted…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-18 Xiaochun Liu , Richard Luger

Uncertainty is prevalent in engineering design, data-driven problems, and decision making broadly. Due to inherent risk-averseness and ambiguity about assumptions, it is common to address uncertainty by formulating and solving conservative…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-05 Johannes O. Royset

A new class of risk measures called cash sub-additive risk measures is introduced to assess the risk of future financial, nonfinancial and insurance positions. The debated cash additive axiom is relaxed into the cash sub additive axiom to…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2008-12-02 Nicole El Karoui , Claudia Ravanelli

We give sufficient conditions for the expected excess and the upper semideviation of recourse functions to be strongly convex. This is done in the setting of two-stage stochastic programs with complete linear recourse and random right-hand…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-02-20 Matthias Claus , Rüdiger Schultz , Kai Spürkel

Risk budgeting is a portfolio strategy where each asset contributes a prespecified amount to the aggregate risk of the portfolio. In this work, we propose an efficient numerical framework that uses only simulations of returns for estimating…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2023-02-03 Bernardo Freitas Paulo da Costa , Silvana M. Pesenti , Rodrigo S. Targino

The optimization of a large random portfolio under the Expected Shortfall risk measure with an $\ell_2$ regularizer is carried out by analytical calculation. The regularizer reins in the large sample fluctuations and the concomitant…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-07-04 Gábor Papp , Fabio Caccioli , Imre Kondor

Investors who optimize their portfolios under any of the coherent risk measures are naturally led to regularized portfolio optimization when they take into account the impact their trades make on the market. We show here that the impact…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2014-04-16 Fabio Caccioli , Imre Kondor , Matteo Marsili , Susanne Still

While the {estimation} of risk is an important question in the daily business of banking and insurance, many existing plug-in estimation procedures suffer from an unnecessary bias. This often leads to the underestimation of risk and…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-02-04 Marcin Pitera , Thorsten Schmidt

In this work, we investigate the question of how knowledge about expectations $\mathbb{E}(f_i(X))$ of a random vector $X$ translate into inequalities for $\mathbb{E}(g(X))$ for given functions $f_i$, $g$ and a random vector $X$ whose…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-27 André M. Timpanaro

Distributional regression aims at estimating the conditional distribution of a targetvariable given explanatory co-variates. It is a crucial tool for forecasting whena precise uncertainty quantification is required. A popular methodology…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-22 Clément Dombry , Ahmed Zaoui

This paper presents analytical solutions to the problem of how to calculate sensible VaR (Value-at-Risk) and ES (Expected Shortfall) contributions in the CreditRisk+ methodology. Via the ES contributions, ES itself can be exactly computed…

Condensed Matter · Physics 2011-08-09 Alexandre Kurth , Dirk Tasche