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The impact of spatial structure on the spread of an epidemic is an important issue in the propagation of infectious diseases. Recent studies, both deterministic and stochastic, have made it possible to understand the importance of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-09 Alphonse Emakoua

In this work, we use a new approach to study the spread of an infectious disease. Indeed, we study a SIR epidemic model with variable infectivity, where the individuals are distributed over a compact subset $D$ of $\R^d$. We define…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Armand Kanga , Etienne Pardoux

We consider a space-time SI epidemic model with infection age-dependent infectivity and non-local infections constructed on a grid of the torus $\mathbb{T}^1 =(0, 1]^d$, where the individuals may migrate from node to another. The migration…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-06 Anicet Mougabe-Peurkor , Étienne Pardoux , Ténan Yeo

In this paper, we study the dynamics of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model on a network with community structure, namely the stochastic block model (SBM). As usual, the SIR model is a stochastic model for an epidemic where…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-10 Christian Borgs , Karissa Huang , Christian Ikeokwu

We consider a spatial SIR epidemic model where the infectivity of infected individuals depends upon their age of infection, and infections are non local. The domain is an unbounded subset of $\R^d$,and the individuals do not move. We extend…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Armand Kanga , Etienne Pardoux

A stochastic SIR epidemic model taking into account the heterogeneity of the spatial environment is constructed. The deterministic model is given by a partial differential equation and the stochastic one by a space-time jump Markov process.…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-10 Thierry Gallouët , Etienne Pardoux , Ténan Yeo

In this paper we consider a model for the spread of a stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemic on a network of individuals described by a random intersection graph. Individuals belong to a random number of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-29 Frank G. Ball , David J. Sirl , Pieter Trapman

We study in this paper a compartmental SIR model for a population distributed in a bounded domain D of $\mathbb{R}^d$, d= 1, 2, or 3. We describe a spatial model for the spread of a disease on a grid of D. We prove two laws of large…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-23 M. N'zi , E. Pardoux , T. Yeo

The behavior at criticality of spatial SIR (susceptible/infected/recovered) epidemic models in dimensions two and three is investigated. In these models, finite populations of size N are situated at the vertices of the integer lattice, and…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-01-05 Steven P. Lalley , Xinghua Zheng

In this article, we study an interacting particle system in the context of epidemiology where the individuals (particles) are characterized by their position and infection state. We begin with a description at the microscopic level where…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-12-06 Maxime Hauray , Etienne Pardoux , Yen V. Vuong

In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent p-coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-07-26 Steven P. Lalley

We investigate final outcome properties of an SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a population of large sub-communities in which there is stronger disease transmission within the communities than…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-08 Frank Ball , David Sirl , Pieter Trapman

We consider a stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic defined on a configuration model random graph, in which infective individuals can infect only their neighbours in the graph during an infectious period…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-10 Frank Ball

We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-05-08 E. Ben-Naim , P. L. Krapivsky

We study an individual-based stochastic epidemic model in which infected individuals become susceptible again following each infection. In contrast to classical compartment models, after each infection, the infectivity is a random function…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-04-29 Raphaël Forien , Guodong Pang , Étienne Pardoux , Arsene Brice Zotsa-Ngoufack

In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent $p-$coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-29 Steven P. Lalley

We study a stochastic spatial epidemic model where the $N$ individuals carry two features: a position and an infection state, interact and move in $\R^d$. In this Markovian model, the evolution of the infection states are described with the…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-11-05 Yen V. Vuong , Maxime Hauray , Etienne Pardoux

This paper considers a stochastic SIR (susceptible$\to$infective$\to$removed) epidemic model in which individuals may make infectious contacts in two ways, both within `households' (which for ease of exposition are assumed to have equal…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-13 Frank Ball , David Sirl , Pieter Trapman

A Markovian SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) model is considered for the spread of an epidemic on a configuration model network, in which susceptible individuals may take preventive measures by dropping edges to infectious neighbours.…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-23 Frank Ball , Tom Britton , Ka Yin Leung , David Sirl

A stochastic epidemic model accounting for the effect of contact-tracing on the spread of an infectious disease is studied. Precisely, individuals identified as infected may contribute to detecting other infectious individuals by providing…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-03-28 Stéphan Clémençon , Viet Chi Tran , Hector De Arazoza
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