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We present a sample path dependent measure of causal influence between two time series. The proposed measure is a random variable whose expected sum is the directed information. A realization of the proposed measure may be used to identify…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-10-15 Gabriel Schamberg , Todd P. Coleman

In the common time series model $X_{i,n} = \mu (i/n) + \varepsilon_{i,n}$ with non-stationary errors we consider the problem of detecting a significant deviation of the mean function $\mu$ from a benchmark $g (\mu )$ (such as the initial…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-25 Holger Dette , Florian Heinrichs

For stationary time series, it is common to use the plots of partial autocorrelation function (PACF) or PACF-based tests to explore the temporal dependence structure of such processes. To our best knowledge, such analogs for non-stationary…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-02-01 Xiucai Ding , Zhou Zhou

For a strictly stationary sequence of random variables we derive functional convergence of the joint partial sum and partial maxima process under joint regular variation with index $\alpha \in (0,2)$ and weak dependence conditions. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-10-08 Danijel Krizmanic

The idea of a parsing of a stationary process according to a collection of words is introduced, and the basic framework required for the asymptotic analysis of these parsings is presented. We demonstrate how the pointwise ergodic theorem…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-02-13 Matan Tal

In many applications, the common assumption that a driving noise process affecting a system is independent or Markovian may not be realistic, but the noise process may be assumed to be stationary. To study such problems, this paper…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-08 Serdar Yüksel

Many real-world objects can be modeled as a stream of events on the nodes of a graph. In this paper, we propose a class of graphical event models named temporal point process graphical models for representing the temporal dependencies among…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-25 Yalong Lyu , Huiyuan Wang , Wei Lin

For a joint model-based and design-based inference, we establish functional central limit theorems for the Horvitz-Thompson empirical process and the H\'ajek empirical process centered by their finite population mean as well as by their…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-05-05 Hélène Boistard , Hendrik P. Lopuhaä , Anne Ruiz-Gazen

When considering two or more time series of functions or curves, for instance those derived from densely observed intraday stock price data of several companies, the empirical cross-covariance operator is of fundamental importance due to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-04-04 Gregory Rice , Marco Shum

This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-04 Donald W. K. Andrews , Ming Li

Exchangeable arrays are natural tools to model common forms of dependence between units of a sample. Jointly exchangeable arrays are well suited to dyadic data, where observed random variables are indexed by two units from the same…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-04-18 Laurent Davezies , Xavier D'Haultfoeuille , Yannick Guyonvarch

We develop and generalize the theory of extreme value for non-stationary stochastic processes, mostly by weakening the uniform mixing condition that was previously used in this setting. We apply our results to non-autonomous dynamical…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-06-27 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Sandro Vaienti

Regularly varying stochastic processes model extreme dependence between process values at different locations and/or time points. For such processes we propose a two-step parameter estimation of the extremogram, when some part of the domain…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-28 Sven Buhl , Claudia Klüppelberg

The analysis of spatial extremes requires the joint modeling of a spatial process at a large number of stations and max-stable processes have been developed as a class of stochastic processes suitable for studying spatial extremes. Spatial…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-09-28 Soyoung Jeon , Richard L. Smith

In this article we establish two fundamental results for the sublevel set persistent homology for stationary processes indexed by the positive integers. The first is a strong law of large numbers for the persistence diagram (treated as a…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-22 Andrew M. Thomas

Let $(X_{n,i})_{1\le i\le n,n\in\mathbb{N}}$ be a triangular array of row-wise stationary $\mathbb{R}^d$-valued random variables. We use a "blocks method" to define clusters of extreme values: the rows of $(X_{n,i})$ are divided into $m_n$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-05-19 Holger Drees , Holger Rootzén

We present a central limit theorem for stationary random fields that are short-range dependent and asymptotically independent. As an application, we present a central limit theorem for an infinite family of interacting It\^o-type diffusion…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-19 Le Chen , Davar Khoshnevisan , David Nualart , Fei Pu

This paper is concerned with combined inference for point processes on the real line observed in a broken interval. For such processes, the classic history-based approach cannot be used. Instead, we adapt tools from sequential spatial point…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-04 M. N. M. van Lieshout

We consider the residual empirical process in random design regression with long memory errors. We establish its limiting behaviour, showing that its rates of convergence are different from the rates of convergence for to the empirical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-02-23 Pawel Lorek , Rafal Kulik

Empirical likelihood approach is one of non-parametric statistical methods, which is applied to the hypothesis testing or construction of confidence regions for pivotal unknown quantities. This method has been applied to the case of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-09-21 Fumiya Akashi , Yan Liu , Masanobu Taniguchi