Related papers: Bridging the COVID-19 Data and the Epidemiological…
Coronavirus COVID-19 spreads through the population mostly based on social contact. To gauge the potential for widespread contagion, to cope with associated uncertainty and to inform its mitigation, more accurate and robust modelling is…
This document aims to estimate and describe the effects of the social distancing measures implemented in several countries with the expectancy of controlling the spread of COVID-19. The procedure relies on the classic…
As the COVID-19 outbreak evolves around the world, the World Health Organization (WHO) and its Member States have been heavily relying on staying at home and lock down measures to control the spread of the virus. In the last months, various…
We present a new mathematical model to explicitly capture the effects that the three restriction measures: the lockdown date and duration, social distancing and masks, and, schools and border closing, have in controlling the spread of…
After COVID-19 was first reported in China at the end of 2019, it took only a few months for this local crisis to turn into a global pandemic with unprecedented disruptions of everyday life. However, at any moment in time the situation in…
In this paper, we propose a Susceptible-Infected-Removal (SIR) model with time fused coefficients. In particular, our proposed model discovers the underlying time homogeneity pattern for the SIR model's transmission rate and removal rate…
We have developed a globally applicable diagnostic Covid-19 model by augmenting the classical SIR epidemiological model with a neural network module. Our model does not rely upon previous epidemics like SARS/MERS and all parameters are…
The classic SIR model of epidemic dynamics is solved completely by quadratures, including a time integral transform expanded in a series of incomplete gamma functions. The model is also generalized to arbitrary time-dependent infection…
Social distancing strategies have been adopted by governments to manage the COVID-19 pandemic, since the first outbreak began. However, further epidemic waves keep out the return of economic and social activities to their standard levels of…
The results of an alternative methodology for making predictions about the COVID-19 pandemic in Greece are presented. Instead of focusing on the various population profiles (subjected to instabilities introduced by the fitting process),…
Recent outbreak of the novel coronavirus COVID-19 has affected all of our lives in one way or the other. While medical researchers are working hard to find a cure and doctors/nurses to attend the affected individuals, measures such as…
In this paper, we firstly propose SQIARD and SIARD models to investigate the transmission of COVID-19 with quarantine, infected and asymptomatic infected, and discuss the relation between the respective basic reproduction number $R_0, R_Q$…
Pandemics can cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. Thus far, modeling of pandemics has focused on either large-scale difference equation models like the SIR and the SEIR models, or detailed micro-level…
The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for quantitative modeling and analysis to understand real-world disease dynamics. In particular, post hoc analyses using compartmental models offer valuable insights into the effectiveness of…
The infections and fatalities due to SARS-CoV-2 virus for cases specific to India have been studied using a deterministic susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-dead (SEIRD) compartmental model. One of the most significant epidemiological…
A generalisation of the Susceptible-Infectious model is made to include a time-dependent transmission rate, which leads to a close analytical expression in terms of a logistic function. The solution can be applied to any continuous function…
Spatiotemporal modelling of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 involves using a variety of epidemiological metrics such as regional proportion of cases or regional positivity rates. Although observing their changes over time is critical…
The global spread of pandemics is facilitated by the mobility of populations, transforming localized infections into widespread phenomena. To contain it, timely identification of influential regions that accelerate this process is…
To describe the dynamics of social distancing during pandemics, we follow previous efforts to combine basic epidemiology models (e.g. SIR - Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered) with game and economy theory tools. We present an extension of…
This paper describes the Bayesian SIR modeling of the 3 waves of Covid-19 in two contrasting US states during 2020-2021. A variety of models are evaluated at the county level for goodness-of-fit and an assessment of confounding predictors…