Related papers: Bridging the COVID-19 Data and the Epidemiological…

In this paper we explore a time-depended SEIR model, in which the dynamics of the infection in four groups from a selected target group (population), divided according to the infection, are modeled by a system of nonlinear ordinary…

The emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the United States has forced federal and local governments to implement containment measures. Moreover, the severity of the situation has sparked engagement by both the research and…

We have proposed a new form of growth rate for population ecology. Generally, the growth rate is dependent on the size of the population at that particular epoch. We have introduced an alternative time-dependent form of growth rate. This…

Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…

India was under a grave threat from the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic particularly in the beginning of May 2021. The situation appeared rather gloomy as the number of infected individuals/active cases had increased alarmingly during…

We present a System Dynamics (SD) model of the Covid-19 pandemic spread in India. The detailed age-structured compartment-based model endogenously captures various disease transmission pathways, expanding significantly from the standard…

We describe the population-based SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infected, removed) model developed by the Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group (IEMAG), which advises the Irish government on COVID-19 responses. The model assumes a…

Coronavirus outbreak is one of the most challenging pandemics for the entire human population of the planet Earth. Techniques such as the isolation of infected persons and maintaining social distancing are the only preventive measures…

A model of reactive social distancing in epidemics is proposed, in which the infection rate changes with the number infected. The final-size equation for the total number that the epidemic will infect can be derived analytically, as can the…

Here we propose and implement a generalized mathematical model to find the time evolution of population in infectious diseases and apply the model to study the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Our model at the core is a non-local generalization of…

The aim of this study is to propose a modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model that describes the behaviour of symptomatic, asymptomatic and hospitalized patients of COVID-19 epidemic, including the effect of demographic…

A pandemic is the spread of a disease across large regions, and can have devastating costs to the society in terms of health, economic and social. As such, the study of effective pandemic mitigation strategies can yield significant positive…

To model the evolution of diseases with extended latency periods and the presence of asymptomatic patients like COVID-19, we define a simple discrete time stochastic SIR-type epidemic model. We include both latent periods as well as the…

An epidemiological study of deaths is carried out in a dozen countries by analyzing the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. These countries are among those most affected by the first wave, i.e. where daily-death data series may closely…

In this article, we develop a data assimilation procedure to predict the evolution of epidemics with data uncertainty, with application to the Covid-19 pandemic. We construct a vademecum of solutions by solving the SIR epidemic model for a…

In this paper, we propose a parameter identification methodology of the SIRD model, an extension of the classical SIR model, that considers the deceased as a separate category. In addition, our model includes one parameter which is the…

The current COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns have highlighted the close and delicate relationship between a country's public health and economic health. Macroeconomic models that use preexisting epidemic models to calculate the…

In this paper we propose a novel SEIR stochastic epidemic model. A distinguishing feature of this new model is that it allows us to consider a set up under general latency and infectious period distributions. To some extent, queuing systems…

Most COVID-19 predictive modeling efforts use statistical or mathematical models to predict national- and state-level COVID-19 cases or deaths in the future. These approaches assume parameters such as reproduction time, test positivity…

COVID-19 is a new pandemic disease that is affecting almost every country with a negative impact on social life and economic activities. The number of infected and deceased patients continues to increase globally. Mathematical models can…