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This paper introduces a Bayesian framework that combines Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, dimensionality reduction, and neural density estimation to efficiently handle inverse problems that (i) must be solved multiple times, and…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-02-24 Giacomo Bottacini , Matteo Torzoni , Andrea Manzoni

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a widely-used technique for generating a dependent sequence of samples from complex distributions. Conventionally, these methods require a source of independent random variates. Most implementations use…

Computation · Statistics 2012-04-17 Iain Murray , Lloyd T. Elliott

The quasi-Monte Carlo method is widely used in computational finance, whose efficiency strongly depends on the smoothness and effective dimension of the integrand. In this work, we investigate the combination of importance sampling and the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-03-05 Jiaxin Yu , Xiaoqun Wang

Efficient sampling of complex high-dimensional probability distributions is a central task in computational science. Machine learning methods like autoregressive neural networks, used with Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, provide good…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2021-11-11 Dian Wu , Riccardo Rossi , Giuseppe Carleo

We introduce data structures for solving robust regression through stochastic gradient descent (SGD) by sampling gradients with probability proportional to their norm, i.e., importance sampling. Although SGD is widely used for large scale…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Sepideh Mahabadi , David P. Woodruff , Samson Zhou

Safety evaluation of self-driving technologies has been extensively studied. One recent approach uses Monte Carlo based evaluation to estimate the occurrence probabilities of safety-critical events as safety measures. These Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-07-19 Zhiyuan Huang , Mansur Arief , Henry Lam , Ding Zhao

Solving partial differential equations in high dimensions by deep neural network has brought significant attentions in recent years. In many scenarios, the loss function is defined as an integral over a high-dimensional domain. Monte-Carlo…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-11-06 Jingrun Chen , Rui Du , Panchi Li , Liyao Lyu

Bayesian inference in deep neural networks is challenging due to the high-dimensional, strongly multi-modal parameter posterior density landscape. Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches asymptotically recover the true posterior but are…

Probabilistic artificial neural networks offer intriguing prospects for enabling the uncertainty of artificial intelligence methods to be described explicitly in their function; however, the development of techniques that quantify…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-11-23 James B. Aimone , William Severa , J. Darby Smith

Simulation-based methods for statistical inference have evolved dramatically over the past 50 years, keeping pace with technological advancements. The field is undergoing a new revolution as it embraces the representational capacity of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-11 Andrew Zammit-Mangion , Matthew Sainsbury-Dale , Raphaël Huser

A resampling scheme provides a way to switch low-weight particles for sequential Monte Carlo with higher-weight particles representing the objective distribution. The less the variance of the weight distribution is, the more concentrated…

Computation · Statistics 2023-09-19 Xiongming Dai , Gerald Baumgartner

We propose a method (TT-GP) for approximate inference in Gaussian Process (GP) models. We build on previous scalable GP research including stochastic variational inference based on inducing inputs, kernel interpolation, and structure…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-01-18 Pavel Izmailov , Alexander Novikov , Dmitry Kropotov

Computation of extreme quantiles and tail-based risk measures using standard Monte Carlo simulation can be inefficient. A method to speed up computations is provided by importance sampling. We show that importance sampling algorithms,…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-09-21 Henrik Hult , Jens Svensson

Monte Carlo methods, Variational Inference, and their combinations play a pivotal role in sampling from intractable probability distributions. However, current studies lack a unified evaluation framework, relying on disparate performance…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-12 Denis Blessing , Xiaogang Jia , Johannes Esslinger , Francisco Vargas , Gerhard Neumann

Many machine learning applications require operating on a spatially distributed dataset. Despite technological advances, privacy considerations and communication constraints may prevent gathering the entire dataset in a central unit. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-30 Alexandros E. Tzikas , Licio Romao , Mert Pilanci , Alessandro Abate , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

The Bayesian estimation of GARCH-family models has been typically addressed through Monte Carlo sampling. Variational Inference is gaining popularity and attention as a robust approach for Bayesian inference in complex machine learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-06 Martin Magris , Alexandros Iosifidis

In the field of structural reliability, the Monte-Carlo estimator is considered as the reference probability estimator. However, it is still untractable for real engineering cases since it requires a high number of runs of the model. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-03-19 V. Dubourg , F. Deheeger , B. Sudret

Graph Convolutional Networks (GCNs) have achieved impressive empirical advancement across a wide variety of semi-supervised node classification tasks. Despite their great success, training GCNs on large graphs suffers from computational and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Weilin Cong , Morteza Ramezani , Mehrdad Mahdavi

The critical step in a molecular process is often a rare-event and has to be simulated by an enhanced sampling protocol. Recovering accurate dynamical estimates from such biased simulation is challenging. Girsanov reweighting is a method to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-03-28 Stefanie Kieninger , Simon Ghysbrecht , Bettina G. Keller

Monte Carlo estimation in plays a crucial role in stochastic reaction networks. However, reducing the statistical uncertainty of the corresponding estimators requires sampling a large number of trajectories. We propose control variates…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-19 Michael Backenköhler , Luca Bortolussi , Verena Wolf
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