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Prudent management of insurance investment portfolios requires competent asset pricing of fixed-income assets with time-to-event contingent cash flows, such as consumer asset-backed securities (ABS). Current market pricing techniques for…
In the area of credit risk analytics, current Bankruptcy Prediction Models (BPMs) struggle with (a) the availability of comprehensive and real-world data sets and (b) the presence of extreme class imbalance in the data (i.e., very few…
Accurate forecasting of zero coupon bond yields for a continuum of maturities is paramount to bond portfolio management and derivative security pricing. Yet a universal model for yield curve forecasting has been elusive, and prior attempts…
This study is motivated by empirical observations of periodic fluctuations in interest rates, notably long-term economic cycles spanning decades, which the conventional Hull-White short-rate model fails to adequately capture. To address…
We develop a non-parametric, semimartingale optimal transport, calibration methodology for local volatility models with stochastic interest rate. The method finds a fully calibrated model which is the closest, in a way that can be defined…
The main goal of this paper is to use the enlargement of ltration framework for pricing zerocoupon CAT bonds. For this purpose, we develop two models where the trigger event time is perfectly covered by an increasing sequence of stopping…
This paper introduces a short rate model in continuous time that adds one or more memory (delay) components to the Merton model (Merton 1970, 1973) or the Vasi\v{c}ek model (Vasi\v{c}ek 1977) for the short rate. The distribution of the…
This paper proposes a Monte Carlo technique for pricing the forward yield to maturity, when the volatility of the zero-coupon bond is known. We make the assumption of deterministic default intensity (Hazard Rate Function). We make no…
Life expectancy have been increasing over the past years due to better health care, feeding and conducive environment. To manage future uncertainty related to life expectancy, various insurance institutions have resolved to come up with…
We introduce a novel machine learning model for credit risk by combining tree-boosting with a latent spatio-temporal Gaussian process model accounting for frailty correlation. This allows for modeling non-linearities and interactions among…
I show that the Zero Lower Bound (ZLB) on interest rates can be used to identify the causal effects of monetary policy. Identification depends on the extent to which the ZLB limits the efficacy of monetary policy. I propose a simple way to…
An interacting Black-Scholes model for option pricing, where the usual constant interest rate r is replaced by a stochastic time dependent rate r(t) of the form r(t)=r+f(t) dW/dt, accounting for market imperfections and prices…
The lifetime behaviour of loans is notoriously difficult to model, which can compromise a bank's financial reserves against future losses, if modelled poorly. Therefore, we present a data-driven comparative study amongst three techniques in…
We propose a unifying framework for the pricing of debt securities under general time-inhomogeneous short-rate diffusion processes. The pricing of bonds, bond options, callable/putable bonds, and convertible bonds (CBs) is covered. Using…
We aim to analyze the behaviour of a finite-time stochastic system, whose model is not available, in the context of more rare and harmful outcomes. Standard estimators are not effective in making predictions about such outcomes due to their…
We present a new approach for the pricing of interest rate derivatives which allows a direct computation of option premiums without deriving a (Black-Scholes type) partial differential equation and without explicitly solving the stochastic…
In this survey paper we discuss recent advances on short interest rate models which can be formulated in terms of a stochastic differential equation for the instantaneous interest rate (also called short rate) or a system of such equations…
We study the origins of the $\sqrt{dt}$ effect in finance and SDE. In particular, we show, in the game-theoretic framework, that market volatility is a consequence of the absence of riskless opportunities for making money and that too high…
The Black-Litterman model is a framework for incorporating forward-looking expert views in a portfolio optimization problem. Existing work focuses almost exclusively on single-period problems with the forecast horizon matching that of the…
This article proposes a novel framework that integrates Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) into a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model to forecast macro-financial variables and examine asymmetries in the transmission…