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Inducing causal relationships from observations is a classic problem in machine learning. Most work in causality starts from the premise that the causal variables themselves are observed. However, for AI agents such as robots trying to make…

We introduce an approach which allows detecting causal relationships between variables for which the time evolution is available. Causality is assessed by a variational scheme based on the Information Imbalance of distance ranks, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-07 Vittorio Del Tatto , Gianfranco Fortunato , Domenica Bueti , Alessandro Laio

It is a long-standing question to discover causal relations among a set of variables in many empirical sciences. Recently, Reinforcement Learning (RL) has achieved promising results in causal discovery from observational data. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-16 Xiaoqiang Wang , Yali Du , Shengyu Zhu , Liangjun Ke , Zhitang Chen , Jianye Hao , Jun Wang

Understanding which parts of a dynamical system cause each other is extremely relevant in fundamental and applied sciences. However, inferring causal links from observational data, namely without direct manipulations of the system, is still…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2025-06-27 Matteo Allione , Vittorio Del Tatto , Alessandro Laio

Mathematical models are fundamental building blocks in the design of dynamical control systems. As control systems are becoming increasingly complex and networked, approaches for obtaining such models based on first principles reach their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Dominik Baumann , Friedrich Solowjow , Karl H. Johansson , Sebastian Trimpe

Drawbacks of ignoring the causal mechanisms when performing imitation learning have recently been acknowledged. Several approaches both to assess the feasibility of imitation and to circumvent causal confounding and causal misspecifications…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-13 Fateme Jamshidi , Sina Akbari , Negar Kiyavash

The representation of the flow of information between neurons in the brain based on their activity is termed the causal functional connectome. Such representation incorporates the dynamic nature of neuronal activity and causal interactions…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2022-11-16 Rahul Biswas , Eli Shlizerman

Detecting anomalies and the corresponding root causes in multivariate time series plays an important role in monitoring the behaviors of various real-world systems, e.g., IT system operations or manufacturing industry. Previous anomaly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-30 Wenzhuo Yang , Kun Zhang , Steven C. H. Hoi

Inferring the causal direction and causal effect between two discrete random variables X and Y from a finite sample is often a crucial problem and a challenging task. However, if we have access to observational and interventional data, it…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-16 Peter Gmeiner

The analysis of temporal networks heavily depends on the analysis of time-respecting paths. However, before being able to model and analyze the time-respecting paths, we have to infer the timescales at which the temporal edges influence…

Physics and Society · Physics 2023-01-30 Luka V. Petrović , Anatol Wegner , Ingo Scholtes

Discovering causal relationships from observational data, particularly in the presence of latent variables, poses a challenging problem. While current local structure learning methods have proven effective and efficient when the focus lies…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-07 Feng Xie , Zheng Li , Peng Wu , Yan Zeng , Chunchen Liu , Zhi Geng

Conventional temporal causal discovery (CD) methods suffer from high dimensionality, fail to identify lagged causal relationships, and often ignore dynamics in relations. In this study, we present a novel constraint-based CD approach for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Muhammad Hasan Ferdous , Uzma Hasan , Md Osman Gani

This paper considers the problem of learning, from samples, the dependency structure of a system of linear stochastic differential equations, when some of the variables are latent. In particular, we observe the time evolution of some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-05-02 Ali Jalali , Sujay Sanghavi

Inferring a cause from its effect using observed time series data is a major challenge in natural and social sciences. Assuming the effect is generated by the cause trough a linear system, we propose a new approach based on the hypothesis…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-03-05 Naji Shajarisales , Dominik Janzing , Bernhard Shoelkopf , Michel Besserve

Identifiability is central to the interpretability of deep latent variable models, ensuring parameterisations are uniquely determined by the data-generating distribution. However, it remains underexplored for deep regime-switching time…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-01-08 Carles Balsells-Rodas , Toshiko Matsui , Pedro A. M. Mediano , Yixin Wang , Yingzhen Li

A common concern when a policymaker draws causal inferences from and makes decisions based on observational data is that the measured covariates are insufficiently rich to account for all sources of confounding, i.e., the standard no…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-10-25 Tao Shen , Yifan Cui

In this study, we address causal inference when only observational data and a valid causal ordering from the causal graph are available. We introduce a set of flow models that can recover component-wise, invertible transformation of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-16 Minh Khoa Le , Kien Do , Truyen Tran

Causal relationships play a fundamental role in understanding the world around us. The ability to identify and understand cause-effect relationships is critical to making informed decisions, predicting outcomes, and developing effective…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2025-09-10 Sergio Chibbaro , Cyril Furtlehner , Théo Marchetta , Andrei-Tiberiu Pantea , Davide Rossetti

Understanding causal relationships in multivariate time series is crucial in many scenarios, such as those dealing with financial or neurological data. Many such time series exhibit multiple regimes, i.e., consecutive temporal segments with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Abdellah Rahmani , Pascal Frossard

Counterfactual learning has become promising for understanding and modeling causality in complex and dynamic systems. This paper presents a novel method for counterfactual learning in the context of multivariate time series analysis and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Gianlucca Zuin , Adriano Veloso