English
Related papers

Related papers: Counterfactual Predictions under Runtime Confoundi…

200 papers

The growing integration of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) models into high-stakes domains such as healthcare and scientific research calls for models that are not only accurate but also interpretable. Among the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-23 Zhuo Cao , Xuan Zhao , Lena Krieger , Hanno Scharr , Ira Assent

Building interpretable parameterizations of real-world decision-making on the basis of demonstrated behavior -- i.e. trajectories of observations and actions made by an expert maximizing some unknown reward function -- is essential for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-31 Ioana Bica , Daniel Jarrett , Alihan Hüyük , Mihaela van der Schaar

We propose a counterfactual approach to train ``causality-aware" predictive models that are able to leverage causal information in static anticausal machine learning tasks (i.e., prediction tasks where the outcome influences the features).…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-01 Elias Chaibub Neto

Counterfactual evaluation of novel treatment assignment functions (e.g., advertising algorithms and recommender systems) is one of the most crucial causal inference problems for practitioners. Traditionally, randomized controlled trials…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-12-24 Ruocheng Guo , Jundong Li , Huan Liu

The capability of imagining internally with a mental model of the world is vitally important for human cognition. If a machine intelligent agent can learn a world model to create a "dream" environment, it can then internally ask what-if…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-29 Minne Li , Mengyue Yang , Furui Liu , Xu Chen , Zhitang Chen , Jun Wang

This paper introduces a simple framework of counterfactual estimation for causal inference with time-series cross-sectional data, in which we estimate the average treatment effect on the treated by directly imputing counterfactual outcomes…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-16 Licheng Liu , Ye Wang , Yiqing Xu

Suppose that we are given a quantum computer programmed ready to perform a computation if it is switched on. Counterfactual computation is a process by which the result of the computation may be learnt without actually running the computer.…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2015-06-26 Graeme Mitchison , Richard Jozsa

We propose a formal model for counterfactual estimation with unobserved confounding in "data-rich" settings, i.e., where there are a large number of units and a large number of measurements per unit. Our model provides a bridge between the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-03 Alberto Abadie , Anish Agarwal , Devavrat Shah

Abstaining classifiers have the option to abstain from making predictions on inputs that they are unsure about. These classifiers are becoming increasingly popular in high-stakes decision-making problems, as they can withhold uncertain…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-10 Yo Joong Choe , Aditya Gangrade , Aaditya Ramdas

Algorithmic recourse aims to provide actionable recommendations to individuals to obtain a more favourable outcome from an automated decision-making system. As it involves reasoning about interventions performed in the physical world,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-23 Julius von Kügelgen , Nikita Agarwal , Jakob Zeitler , Afsaneh Mastouri , Bernhard Schölkopf

We show that one can perform causal inference in a natural way for continuous-time scenarios using tools from stochastic analysis. This provides new alternatives to the positivity condition for inverse probability weighting. The probability…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-04-23 Kjetil Røysland

Counterfactual distributions are important ingredients for policy analysis and decomposition analysis in empirical economics. In this article we develop modeling and inference tools for counterfactual distributions based on regression…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-23 Victor Chernozhukov , Ivan Fernandez-Val , Blaise Melly

Unlike traditional supervised learning, in many settings only partial feedback is available. We may only observe outcomes for the chosen actions, but not the counterfactual outcomes associated with other alternatives. Such settings…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-09 Ruijiang Gao , Max Biggs , Wei Sun , Ligong Han

A common approach in forecasting problems is to estimate a least-squares regression (or other statistical learning models) from past data, which is then applied to predict future outcomes. An underlying assumption is that the same…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-22 Malte Schierholz

Counterfactual explanations are emerging as an attractive option for providing recourse to individuals adversely impacted by algorithmic decisions. As they are deployed in critical applications (e.g. law enforcement, financial lending), it…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-05 Dylan Slack , Sophie Hilgard , Himabindu Lakkaraju , Sameer Singh

Observational studies are rising in importance due to the widespread accumulation of data in fields such as healthcare, education, employment and ecology. We consider the task of answering counterfactual questions such as, "Would this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-06-07 Fredrik D. Johansson , Uri Shalit , David Sontag

Among recent developments in time series forecasting methods, deep forecasting models have gained popularity as they can utilize hidden feature patterns in time series to improve forecasting performance. Nevertheless, the majority of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-13 Zhendong Wang , Ioanna Miliou , Isak Samsten , Panagiotis Papapetrou

The paper considers the problem of multi-objective decision support when outcomes are uncertain. We extend the concept of Pareto-efficient decisions to take into account the uncertainty of decision outcomes across varying contexts. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-10-20 Sofia Ek , Dave Zachariah , Petre Stoica

Machine learning is increasingly applied in high-stakes decision making that directly affect people's lives, and this leads to an increased demand for systems to explain their decisions. Explanations often take the form of counterfactuals,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-20 Maximilian Schleich , Zixuan Geng , Yihong Zhang , Dan Suciu

The growing philosophical literature on algorithmic fairness has examined statistical criteria such as equalized odds and calibration, causal and counterfactual approaches, and the role of structural and compounding injustices. Yet an…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Michele Loi , Marcello Di Bello , Nicolò Cangiotti