Related papers: Reliability Correction is Key for Robust Kepler Oc…
Unlike traditional statistical methods, Conformal Prediction (CP) allows for the determination of valid and accurate confidence levels associated with individual predictions based only on exchangeability of the data. We here introduce a new…
Statistical studies of exoplanets and the properties of their host stars have been critical to informing models of planet formation. Numerous trends have arisen in particular from the rich Kepler dataset, including that exoplanets are more…
Offline evaluation plays a central role in benchmarking recommender systems when online testing is impractical or risky. However, it is susceptible to two key sources of bias: exposure bias, where users only interact with items they are…
One core goal of the Kepler mission was to determine the frequency of Earth-like planets that orbit Sun-like stars. Accurately estimating this planet occurrence rate requires both a well-vetted list of planets and a clear understanding of…
Conformal prediction (CP) is an emerging uncertainty quantification framework that allows us to construct a prediction set to cover the true label with a pre-specified marginal or conditional probability. Although the valid coverage…
Using our K2 Campaign 5 fully automated planet detection data set (43 planets), which has corresponding measures of completeness and reliability, we infer an underlying planet population model for the FGK dwarfs sample (9,257 stars).…
We investigated the underlying architecture of planetary systems by deriving the distribution of planet multiplicity (number of planets) and the distribution of orbital inclinations based on the sample of planet candidates discovered by the…
Radial velocity (RV) planet searches are increasingly finding planets with small velocity amplitudes, with long orbital periods, or in multiple planet systems. Bayesian inference has the potential to improve the interpretation of existing…
Object cross-identification in multiple observations is often complicated by the uncertainties in their astrometric calibration. Due to the lack of standard reference objects, an image with a small field of view can have significantly…
An important problem in sequential decision-making under uncertainty is to use limited data to compute a safe policy, i.e., a policy that is guaranteed to perform at least as well as a given baseline strategy. In this paper, we develop and…
Calibration issues associated to scrambled collateral smear affecting the Kepler short-cadence data were discovered in the Data Release 24 and were found to be present in all the previous data releases since launch. In consequence, a new…
The rapid proliferation of deep-learning-based detection and association methods has greatly expanded automatically generated earthquake catalogs, but has also introduced false detections, mis-associated arrivals, and poorly constrained…
Efficient consistency maintenance of incomplete and dynamic real-life databases is a quality label for further data analysis. In prior work, we tackled the generic problem of database updating in the presence of tuple generating constraints…
Model misspecification is a long-standing enigma of the Bayesian inference framework as posteriors tend to get overly concentrated on ill-informed parameter values towards the large sample limit. Tempering of the likelihood has been…
We need to collect data in any science and reliability is a fundamental problem for measurement in all of science. Reliability means calculation the variance ratio. Reliability was defined as the fraction of an observed score variance that…
The Kepler mission has discovered thousands of planet candidates. Currently, some of them have already been discarded; more than 200 have been confirmed by follow-up observations, and several hundreds have been validated. However, most of…
The Kepler Mission is exploring the diversity of planets and planetary systems. Its legacy will be a catalog of discoveries sufficient for computing planet occurrence rates as a function of size, orbital period, star-type, and insolation…
Foundation model reliability assessment typically requires thousands of evaluation examples, making it computationally expensive and time-consuming for real-world deployment. We introduce microprobe, a novel approach that achieves…
Astrometry from Gaia DR3 has produced a sample of $\sim$170,000 Keplerian orbital solutions, with many more anticipated in the next few years. These data have enormous potential to constrain the population of binary stars, giant planets,…
In Maples et al. (2018) we introduced Robust Chauvenet Outlier Rejection, or RCR, a novel outlier rejection technique that evolves Chauvenet's Criterion by sequentially applying different measures of central tendency and empirically…