Related papers: Modelling Excess Mortality in Covid-19-like Epidem…
The first mitigation response to the Covid-19 pandemic was to limit person-to-person interaction as much as possible. This was implemented by the temporary closing of many workplaces and people were required to follow social distancing.…
Agent-based models have proven to be useful tools in supporting decision-making processes in different application domains. The advent of modern computers and supercomputers has enabled these bottom-up approaches to realistically model…
Once an epidemic outbreak has been effectively contained through non-pharmaceutical interventions, a safe protocol is required for the subsequent release of social distancing restrictions to prevent a disastrous resurgence of the infection.…
We are currently living in a state of uncertainty due to the pandemic caused by the Sars-CoV-2 virus. There are several factors involved in the epidemic spreading such as the individual characteristics of each city/country. The true shape…
In the absence of other tools, monitoring the effects of protective measures, including social distancing and forecasting the outcome of outbreaks is of immense interest. Real-time data is noisy and very often hampered by systematic errors…
After the introduction of drastic containment measures aimed at stopping the epidemic contagion from SARS-CoV2, many governments have adopted a strategy based on a periodic relaxation of such measures in the face of a severe economic crisis…
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…
Due to modern transportation networks (airplanes, cruise ships, etc.) an epidemic in a given country or city may be triggered by the arrival of external infected agents. Posterior government quarantine policies are usually taken in order to…
Raw data on the cumulative number of deaths at a country level generally indicate a spatially variable distribution of the incidence of COVID-19 disease. An important issue is to determine whether this spatial pattern is a consequence of…
Susceptible-Invective-Recovered (SIR) mathematical models are in high demand due to the COVID-19 pandemic. They are used in their standard formulation, or through the many variants, trying to fit and hopefully predict the number of new…
Forecasting the effect of COVID-19 is essential to design policies that may prepare us to handle the pandemic. Many methods have already been proposed, particularly, to forecast reported cases and deaths at country-level and state-level.…
In this paper, we present a model to predict the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic and apply it to the specific case of Italy. We started from a simple Susceptible, Infected, Recovered (SIR) model and we added the condition that, after a…
We consider the $SEIRS$ epidemiology model with such features of the COVID-19 outbreak as: abundance of unidentified infected individuals, limited time of immunity and a possibility of vaccination. Within a compartmental realization of this…
We propose a dynamical model for describing the spread of epidemics. This model is an extension of the SIQR (susceptible-infected-quarantined-recovered) and SIRP (susceptible-infected-recovered-pathogen) models used earlier to describe…
We have further extended our compartmental model describing the spread of the infection in Italy. The model is based on the assumption that the time evolution of all of the observable quantities (number of people still positive to the…
We analyze four models of epidemic spreading using a stochastic approach in which the primary stochastic variables are the numbers of individuals in each class. The stochastic approach is described by a master equation and the transition…
Many countries have experienced at least two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. The second wave is far more dangerous as distinct strains appear more harmful to human health, but it stems from the complacency about the first wave. This paper…
This work aims to assess the risks of Covid-19 disease spread in diverse daily-life situations (referred to as scenarios) involving crowds of maskless pedestrians, mostly outdoors. More concretely, we develop a method to infer the global…
Touristic cities will suffer from COVID-19 emergency because of its economic impact on their communities. The first emergency phases involved a wide closure of such areas to support "social distancing" measures (i.e. travels limitation;…
We revisit well-established concepts of epidemiology, the Ising-model, and percolation theory. Also, we employ a spin $S$ = 1/2 Ising-like model and a (logistic) Fermi-Dirac-like function to describe the spread of Covid-19. Our analysis…