Related papers: Quantitative Statistical Robustness for Tail-Depen…
When estimating the risk of a P&L from historical data or Monte Carlo simulation, the robustness of the estimate is important. We argue here that Hampel's classical notion of qualitative robustness is not suitable for risk measurement and…
The problem of estimating the coefficient of bivariate tail dependence is considered here from the robustness point of view; it combines two apparently contradictory theories of robust statistics and extreme value statistics. The usual…
Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a widely used risk-sensitive objective for learning under rare but high-impact losses, yet its statistical behavior under heavy-tailed data remains poorly understood. Unlike expectation-based risk, CVaR…
We study issues of robustness in the context of Quantitative Risk Management and Optimization. We develop a general methodology for determining whether a given risk measurement related optimization problem is robust, which we call…
Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) is a central tail-risk measure in stochastic structural mechanics, yet its accurate evaluation under high-dimensional, spatially correlated material uncertainty remains computationally prohibitive for…
This paper concerns sequential computation of risk measures for financial data and asks how, given a risk measurement procedure, we can tell whether the answers it produces are `correct'. We draw the distinction between `external' and…
Recently, the concept of tail dependence has been discussed in financial applications related to market or credit risk. The multivariate extreme value theory is a proper tool to measure and model dependence, for example, of large loss…
Recently, financial industry and regulators have enhanced the debate on the good properties of a risk measure. A fundamental issue is the evaluation of the quality of a risk estimation. On the one hand, a backtesting procedure is desirable…
Value at risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) are common high quantile-based risk measures adopted in financial regulations and risk management. In this paper, we propose a tail risk measure based on the most probable maximum size of risk…
We develop an averaging approach to robust risk measurement under payoff uncertainty. Instead of taking a worst-case value over an uncertainty neighborhood, we weight nearby payoffs more heavily under a chosen metric and average the…
The measure of portfolio risk is an important input of the Markowitz framework. In this study, we explored various methods to obtain a robust covariance estimators that are less susceptible to financial data noise. We evaluated the…
The joint Value at Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) quantile regression model of Taylor (2017) is extended via incorporating a realized measure, to drive the tail risk dynamics, as a potentially more efficient driver than daily…
Markov switching models are often used to analyze financial returns because of their ability to capture frequently observed stylized facts. In this paper we consider a multivariate Student-t version of the model as a viable alternative to…
We characterize when a convex risk measure associated to a law-invariant acceptance set in $L^\infty$ can be extended to $L^p$, $1\leq p<\infty$, preserving finiteness and continuity. This problem is strongly connected to the statistical…
This paper presents a systematic study of the notion of surplus invariance, which plays a natural and important role in the theory of risk measures and capital requirements. So far, this notion has been investigated in the setting of some…
This paper develops robust inference methods for predictive regressions that address key challenges posed by endogenously persistent or heavy-tailed regressors, as well as persistent volatility in errors. Building on the Cauchy estimation…
Robustness under perturbation and contamination is a prominent issue in statistical learning. We address the robust nonlinear regression based on the so-called interval conditional value-at-risk (In-CVaR), which is introduced to enhance…
Randomized smoothing has become a leading approach for certifying adversarial robustness in machine learning models. However, a persistent gap remains between theoretical certified robustness and empirical robustness accuracy. This paper…
We propose two robust methods for testing hypotheses on unknown parameters of predictive regression models under heterogeneous and persistent volatility as well as endogenous, persistent and/or fat-tailed regressors and errors. The proposed…
Making decisions with respect to just the expected returns in Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) cannot account for the potential range of high-risk, adverse outcomes associated with a decision. To this end, safety-aware MCTS often consider…