Related papers: Cointegration in large VARs
It is common to conduct causal inference in matched observational studies by proceeding as though treatment assignments within matched sets are assigned uniformly at random and using this distribution as the basis for inference. This…
Features in machine learning problems are often time-varying and may be related to outputs in an algebraic or dynamical manner. The dynamic nature of these machine learning problems renders current higher order accelerated gradient descent…
Scaling visual generation models is essential for real-world content creation, yet requires substantial training and computational expenses. Alternatively, test-time scaling has garnered growing attention due to resource efficiency and…
We prove that a time series satisfying a (linear) multivariate autoregressive moving average (VARMA) model satisfies the same model assumption in the reversed time direction, too, if all innovations are normally distributed. This…
Under a high-dimensional vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we propose a way of efficiently estimating both the stationary graph structure between the nodal time series and their temporal dynamics. The framework is then used to make…
We propose a novel framework for analyzing multivariate time series (MTS) data by integrating non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) with vector autoregression (VAR). Termed NMF-VAR, this method models the coefficient matrix of NMF as a…
Bayesian model comparison relies upon the model evidence, yet for many models of interest the model evidence is unavailable in closed form and must be approximated. Many of the estimators for evidence that have been proposed in the Monte…
We consider a statistical model for pairs of traded assets, based on a Cointegrated Vector Auto Regression (CVAR) Model. We extend standard CVAR models to incorporate estimation of model parameters in the presence of price series level…
Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is a classic method to analyse cointegration relationships amongst multivariate non-stationary time series. In this paper, we focus on high dimensional setting and seek for sample-size-efficient…
We derive the distribution of the eigenvalues of a large sample covariance matrix when the data is dependent in time. More precisely, the dependence for each variable $i=1,...,p$ is modelled as a linear process…
Upon observing $n$-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data, when can we infer that the largest $K$ observations came from the largest $K$ means? When $K=1$ and the covariance is isotropic, \cite{Gutmann} argue that this inference is…
This paper establishes an extended representation theorem for unit-root VARs. A specific algebraic technique is devised to recover stationarity from the solution of the model in the form of a cointegrating transformation. Closed forms of…
While inference-time scaling has significantly enhanced generative quality in large language and diffusion models, its application to vector-quantized (VQ) visual autoregressive modeling (VAR) remains unexplored. We introduce VAR-Scaling,…
Causal inference in multivariate time series is challenging due to the fact that the sampling rate may not be as fast as the timescale of the causal interactions. In this context, we can view our observed series as a subsampled version of…
How best to model structurally heterogeneous processes is a foundational question in the social, health and behavioral sciences. Recently, Fisher et al., (2022) introduced the multi-VAR approach for simultaneously estimating…
Instrumental variable (IV) regression relies on instruments to infer causal effects from observational data with unobserved confounding. We consider IV regression in time series models, such as vector auto-regressive (VAR) processes. Direct…
The problem of testing changes in covariance has received increasing attention in recent years, especially in the context of high-dimensional testing. A number of approaches have been proposed, all limited to the two-sample problem and…
This paper deals with the time-varying high dimensional covariance matrix estimation. We propose two covariance matrix estimators corresponding with a time-varying approximate factor model and a time-varying approximate characteristic-based…
In this work we introduce the class of beta autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average models for continuous random variables taking values in the continuous unit interval $(0,1)$. The proposed model accommodates a set of…
We find the joint generalized singular value distribution and largest generalized singular value distributions of the $\beta$-MANOVA ensemble with positive diagonal covariance, which is general. This has been done for the continuous $\beta…