Related papers: Cointegration in large VARs
We propose a pseudo-structural framework for analyzing contemporaneous co-movements in reduced-rank matrix autoregressive (RRMAR) models. Unlike conventional vector-autoregressive (VAR) models that would discard the matrix structure, our…
High-dimensional time series data appear in many scientific areas in the current data-rich environment. Analysis of such data poses new challenges to data analysts because of not only the complicated dynamic dependence between the series,…
A causal vector autoregressive (CVAR) model is introduced for weakly stationary multivariate processes, combining a recursive directed graphical model for the contemporaneous components and a vector autoregressive model longitudinally.…
In this paper we study the joint distributional convergence of the largest eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix of a $p$-dimensional time series with iid entries when $p$ converges to infinity together with the sample size $n$. We…
Temporal dependence and the resulting autocovariances in time series data can introduce bias into ANOVA test statistics, thereby affecting their size and power. This manuscript accounts for temporal dependence in ANOVA and develops a test…
This paper investigates a statistical procedure for testing the equality of two independent estimated covariance matrices when the number of potentially dependent data vectors is large and proportional to the size of the vectors, that is,…
We consider a generalization of the multiple measurement vector (MMV) problem, where the measurement matrices are allowed to differ across measurements. This problem arises naturally when multiple measurements are taken over time, e.g., and…
Predictive linear and nonlinear models based on kernel machines or deep neural networks have been used to discover dependencies among time series. This paper proposes an efficient nonlinear modeling approach for multiple time series, with a…
Traditional econometric analyzes represent observations as vectors despite the inherent complexity of empirical data structures. When data are organized along dual classification dimensions, a matrix representation provides a more natural…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are widely used in multivariate time series analysis for describing the short-time dynamics of the data. The reduced-rank VAR models are of particular interest when dealing with high-dimensional and highly…
Traditional inference in cointegrating regressions requires tuning parameter choices to estimate a long-run variance parameter. Even in case these choices are "optimal", the tests are severely size distorted. We propose a novel…
There is currently an increasing interest in large vector autoregressive (VAR) models. VARs are popular tools for macroeconomic forecasting and use of larger models has been demonstrated to often improve the forecasting ability compared to…
Understanding the time-varying structure of complex temporal systems is one of the main challenges of modern time series analysis. In this paper, we show that every uniformly-positive-definite-in-covariance and sufficiently short-range…
Motivated by Tucker tensor decomposition, this paper imposes low-rank structures to the column and row spaces of coefficient matrices in a multivariate infinite-order vector autoregression (VAR), which leads to a supervised factor model…
We develop two Regression Monte Carlo algorithms (value and performance iteration) to solve general problems of optimal stochastic control of discrete-time Markov processes. We formulate our method within an innovative framework that allow…
Our paper discovers a new trade-off of using regression adjustments (RAs) in causal inference under covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs). On one hand, RAs can improve the efficiency of causal estimators by incorporating information from…
We consider the estimation of the transition matrix in the high-dimensional time-varying vector autoregression (TV-VAR) models. Our model builds on a general class of locally stationary VAR processes that evolve smoothly in time. We propose…
We propose a computationally intensive method, the random lasso method, for variable selection in linear models. The method consists of two major steps. In step 1, the lasso method is applied to many bootstrap samples, each using a set of…
Multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) is a powerful and versatile method to infer and quantify main and interaction effects in metric multivariate multi-factor data. It is, however, neither robust against change in units nor a…
We revisit macroeconomic time-varying parameter vector autoregressions (TVP-VARs), whose persistent coefficients may adapt too slowly to large, abrupt shifts such as those during major crises. We explore the performance of an…