Related papers: Accurately approximating extreme value statistics
In this paper we discuss the problem of the estimation of extreme event occurrence probability for data drawn from some multifractal process. We also study the heavy (power-law) tail behavior of probability density function associated with…
We compute exact asymptotic results for the probability of the occurrence of large deviations of the largest (smallest) eigenvalue of random matrices belonging to the Gaussian orthogonal, unitary and symplectic ensembles. In particular, we…
The gapped local alignment score of two random sequences follows a Gumbel distribution. If computers could estimate the parameters of the Gumbel distribution within one second, the use of arbitrary alignment scoring schemes could increase…
The Gumbel trick is a method to sample from a discrete probability distribution, or to estimate its normalizing partition function. The method relies on repeatedly applying a random perturbation to the distribution in a particular way, each…
We continue the study of the maximum of the scale-inhomogeneous discrete Gaussian free field in dimension two. In this paper, we consider the regime of weak correlations and prove the convergence in law of the centred maximum to a randomly…
The maximum product of spacings (MPS) is employed in the estimation of the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). Efficient estimators are obtained by the MPS for all $\gamma$. This…
We develop a variant of Stein's method of comparison of generators to bound the Kolmogorov, total variation, and Wasserstein-1 distances between distributions on the real line. Our discrepancy is expressed in terms of the ratio of reverse…
Models for extreme values are generally derived from limit results, which are meant to be good enough approximations when applied to finite samples. Depending on the speed of convergence of the process underlying the data, these…
Modern statistical analyses often encounter datasets with massive sizes and heavy-tailed distributions. For datasets with massive sizes, traditional estimation methods can hardly be used to estimate the extreme value index directly. To…
Let $\sqrt{N}+\lambda_{max}$ be the largest real eigenvalue of a random $N\times N$ matrix with independent $N(0,1)$ entries (the `real Ginibre matrix'). We study the large deviations behaviour of the limiting $N\rightarrow \infty$…
This paper explores a conditional Gibbs theorem for a random walkinduced by i.i.d. (X_{1},..,X_{n}) conditioned on an extreme deviation of its sum (S_{1}^{n}=na_{n}) or (S_{1}^{n}>na_{n}) where a_{n}\rightarrow\infty. It is proved that when…
We study the probability distribution of the pseudo-critical temperature in a mean-field and in a short-range spin-glass model: the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick (SK) and the Edwards-Anderson (EA) model. In both cases, we put in evidence the…
We consider a sequence $(\xi_n)_{n\ge1}$ of $i.i.d.$ random values living in the domain of attraction of an extreme value distribution. For such sequence, there exists $(a_n)$ and $(b_n)$, with $a_n>0$ and $b_n\in\ER$ for every $n\ge 1$,…
We propose an approach to compute the conditional moments of fat-tailed phenomena that, only looking at data, could be mistakenly considered as having infinite mean. This type of problems manifests itself when a random variable Y has a…
We provide a near-optimal, computationally efficient algorithm for the unit-demand pricing problem, where a seller wants to price n items to optimize revenue against a unit-demand buyer whose values for the items are independently drawn…
We derive a central limit theorem for the probability distribution of the sum of many critically correlated random variables. The theorem characterizes a variety of different processes sharing the same asymptotic form of anomalous scaling…
This paper deals with the problem of quantifying the approximation a probability measure by means of an empirical (in a wide sense) random probability measure, depending on the first n terms of a sequence of random elements. In Section 2,…
Consider a random sample from a bivariate distribution function $F$ in the max-domain of attraction of an extreme-value distribution function $G$. This $G$ is characterized by two extreme-value indices and a spectral measure, the latter…
In a model driven by a multi-dimensional local diffusion, we study the behavior of implied volatility {\sigma} and its derivatives with respect to log-strike k and maturity T near expiry and at the money. We recover explicit limits of these…
In nonparametric statistical problems, we wish to find an estimator of an unknown function f. We can split its error into bias and variance terms; Smirnov, Bickel and Rosenblatt have shown that, for a histogram or kernel estimate, the…