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This paper introduces new methods to analyze the changing progression of COVID-19 cases to deaths in different waves of the pandemic. First, an algorithmic approach partitions each country or state's COVID-19 time series into a first wave…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-03-18 Nick James , Max Menzies , Peter Radchenko

We show that the dynamics of the number of deaths due to Covid in different countries is to a large extent universal once the origin of time is chosen to be the start of the lockdown, and the number of death is rescaled by the total number…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-06-18 Serena Bradde , Benedetta Cerruti , Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

This paper estimates the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions - mainly, the lockdown - on the COVID-19 mortality rate for the case of Italy, the first Western country to impose a national shelter-in-place order. We use a new…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-01-29 Roy Cerqueti , Raffaella Coppier , Alessandro Girardi , Marco Ventura

We develop a multiple-events model and exploit within and between country variation in the timing, type and level of intensity of various public policies to study their dynamic effects on the daily incidence of COVID-19 and on population…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-02-03 Nikos Askitas , Konstantinos Tatsiramos , Bertrand Verheyden

This paper aims to study the economic impact of COVID-19. To do that, in the first step, I showed that the adjusted SEQIER model, which is a generalization form of SEIR model, is a good fit to the real COVID-induced daily death data in a…

General Economics · Economics 2022-01-04 Mohammadreza Mahmoudi

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on economic policy uncertainty in the US and the UK. The impact of the increase in COVID-19 cases and deaths in the country, and the increase in the number of…

General Economics · Economics 2020-07-16 Ugur Korkut Pata

We assess the impact of COVID-19 response measures implemented in Germany and Switzerland on cumulative COVID-19-related hospitalization and death rates. Our analysis exploits the fact that the epidemic was more advanced in some regions…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-06-22 Martin Huber , Henrika Langen

Several analytical models have been used in this work to describe the evolution of death cases arising from coronavirus (COVID-19). The Death or `D' model is a simplified version of the SIR (susceptible-infected-recovered) model, which…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-11-19 J. E. Amaro , J. Dudouet , J. N. Orce

This paper analyzes the impact of COVID-19 on the populations and equity markets of 92 countries. We compare country-by-country equity market dynamics to cumulative COVID-19 case and death counts and new case trajectories. First, we examine…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-12-24 Nick James , Max Menzies

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused over 6.4 million registered deaths to date and has had a profound impact on economic activity. Here, we study the interaction of transmission, mortality, and the economy during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic from…

By fitting a compartment ODE model for Covid-19 propagation to cumulative case and death data for US states and European countries, we find that the case mortality rate seems to have decreased by at least 80% in most of the US and at least…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-01-08 Zeina S. Khan , Frank Van Bussel , Fazle Hussain

Emerging at the end of 2019, COVID-19 has become a public health threat to people worldwide. Apart from the deaths who tested positive for COVID-19, many others have died from causes indirectly related to COVID-19. Therefore, the COVID-19…

Applications · Statistics 2020-11-18 Han Lin Shang , Ruofan Xu

COVID-19 disease has affected almost every country in the world. The large number of infected people and the different mortality rates between countries has given rise to many hypotheses about the key points that make the virus so lethal in…

We analysed publicly available data on place of occurrence of COVID-19 deaths from national statistical agencies in the UK between March 9 2020 and February 28 2021. We introduce a modified Weibull model that describes the deaths due to…

Applications · Statistics 2021-06-30 Spencer A. Thomas

Following the emergence of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and its spread outside of China, Europe has experienced large epidemics. In response, many European countries have implemented unprecedented non-pharmaceutical interventions…

Factors such as non-uniform definitions of mortality, uncertainty in disease prevalence, and biased sampling complicate the quantification of fatality during an epidemic. Regardless of the employed fatality measure, the infected population…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-12-28 Lucas Böttcher , Maria D'Orsogna , Tom Chou

The global crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, in conjunction with the economic consequences and the collapse of health systems, has raised serious concerns in Europe, which is the most affected continent by the pandemic since it…

Applications · Statistics 2020-10-26 Konstantinos Demertzis , Lykourgos Magafas , Dimitrios Tsiotas

We present an extension of the Li and Lee model to quantify mortality in five European countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. The first two factors are used to model the pre-COVID mortality, with the first layer modelling the common trend…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-15 Frank van Berkum , Bertrand Melenberg , Michel Vellekoop

It is evident that increasing the intensive-care-unit (ICU) capacity and giving priority to admitting and treating younger patients will reduce the number of COVID-19 deaths, but a quantitative assessment of these measures has remained…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-12-29 Ying-Qi Zeng , Lang Zeng , Ming Tang , Ying Liu , Zong-Hua Liu , Ying-Cheng Lai

This study describes the dynamics of COVID-19 deaths and infections via a Monte Carlo approach. The analyses include death's data from USA, Brazil, Mexico, UK, India and Russia, which comprise the four countries with the highest number of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-01-04 Tulio Rodrigues , Otaviano Helene
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