Related papers: Computational model on COVID-19 Pandemic using Pro…

The widely spread CoronaVirus Disease (COVID)-19 is one of the worst infectious disease outbreaks in history and has become an emergency of primary international concern. As the pandemic evolves, academic communities have been actively…

Objective. The COVID-19 pandemic has threatened to collapse hospital and ICU services, and it has affected the care programs for non-COVID patients. The objective was to develop a mathematical model designed to optimize predictions related…

We propose a Markovian stochastic approach to model the spread of a SARS-CoV-2-like infection within a closed group of humans. The model takes the form of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), whose states are given by the…

In this paper we propose a data-driven model for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and use it to design optimal control strategies of human-mobility restrictions that both curb the epidemic and minimize the economic costs associated with…

The outbreak and propagation of COVID-19 have posed a considerable challenge to modern society. In particular, the different restrictive actions taken by governments to prevent the spread of the virus have changed the way humans interact…

In this paper, we develop a probabilistic mathematical model for the spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). It takes into account the known special characteristics of this disease such as the existence of infectious undetected cases and…

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) global pandemic has led many countries to impose unprecedented lockdown measures in order to slow down the outbreak. Questions on whether governments have acted promptly enough, and whether lockdown…

The SARS-CoV-2 infectious outbreak has rapidly spread across the globe and precipitated varying policies to effectuate physical distancing to ameliorate its impact. In this study, we propose a new hybrid machine learning model, SIRNet, for…

COVID-19 is a devastating respiratory and inflammatory illness caused by a new coronavirus that is rapidly spreading throughout the human population. Over the past 6 months, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the…

COVID-19, a novel coronavirus, is currently a major worldwide threat. It has infected more than a million people globally leading to hundred-thousands of deaths. In such grave circumstances, it is very important to predict the future…

The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…

We provide a predictive analysis of the spread of COVID-19, also known as SARS-CoV-2, using the dataset made publicly available online by the Johns Hopkins University. Our main objective is to provide predictions of the number of infected…

Understanding dynamics of an outbreak like that of COVID-19 is important in designing effective control measures. This study aims to develop an agent based model that compares changes in infection progression by manipulating different…

The novel COVID-19 pandemic is a current, major global health threat. Up till now, there is no fully approved pharmacological treatment or a vaccine. In this study, simple mathematical models were employed to examine the dynamics of…

We propose a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in a homogeneously mixing non constant population, and generalize it to a model where the parameters are given by piecewise constant functions. This allows us to…

Predicting the endemic/epidemic transition during the temporal evolution of a contagious disease. Methods: Defining indicators for detecting the transition endemic/epidemic, with four scalars to be compared, calculated from the daily…

We propose a deterministic SAIVRD model and a stochastic SARV model of the epidemic COVID-19 involving asymptomatic infections and vaccinations to conduct data forecasts using time-dependent parameters. The forecast by our deterministic…

Over a year after the start of the COVID-19 epidemics, we are still facing the virus and it is hard to correctly predict its future spread over weeks to come, as well as the impacts of potential political interventions. Current epidemic…

The current outbreak is known as Coronavirus Disease or COVID-19 caused by the virus SAR-COV-2 which continues to wreak havoc across the globe. The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared the outbreak a Public Health Emergency of…

This paper is concerned with nonlinear modeling and analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic currently ravaging the planet. There are two objectives: to arrive at an appropriate model that captures the collected data faithfully, and to use that as…