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The rapid transmission of the highly contagious novel coronavirus has been represented through several data-guided approaches across targeted geographies, in an attempt to understand when the pandemic will be under control and imposed…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-05 Joydeep Munshi , Indranil Roy , Ganesh Balasubramanian

The spread of COVID-19 has been greatly impacted by regulatory policies and behavior patterns that vary across counties, states, and countries. Population-level dynamics of COVID-19 can generally be described using a set of ordinary…

Applications · Statistics 2022-04-11 Joshua P. Keller , Tianjian Zhou , Andee Kaplan , G. Brooke Anderson , Wen Zhou

This work provides an overview on deterministic and stochastic models that have previously been proposed by us to study the transmission dynamics of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Europe and USA. Briefly, we describe realistic…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-07-11 Giorgio Sonnino , Philippe Peeters , Pasquale Nardone

The unprecedented coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is still a worldwide threat to human life since its invasion into the daily lives of the public in the first several months of 2020. Predicting the size of confirmed cases is…

Applications · Statistics 2020-12-02 Xinyu Wang , Lu Yang , Hong Zhang , Zhouwang Yang , Catherine Liu

We propose two stochastic models for the Coronavirus pandemic. The statistical properties of the models, in particular the correlation functions and the probability density function, have duly been computed. Our models, which generalises a…

Medical Physics · Physics 2020-12-04 Giorgio Sonnino , Fernando Mora , Pasquale Nardone

In this article we propose a compartmental model for the dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). We take into account the presence of asymptomatic infections and the main policies that have been adopted so far to contain the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-05-18 M. Soledad Aronna , Roberto Guglielmi , Lucas M. Moschen

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the world, it is of critical significance to provide a timely risk prediction of the COVID-19 in multi-level. To implement it and evaluate the public health policies, we develop a framework with…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-12-02 Lingxiao Wang , Tian Xu , Till Hannes Stoecker , Horst Stoecker , Yin Jiang , Kai Zhou

Mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 spread are used for guiding the design of mitigation steps aimed at containing and decelerating the contagion, and at identifying impending breaches of health care system surge capacity. The challenges of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-06-17 Daniela Calvetti , Alexander Hoover , Johnie Rose , Erkki Somersalo

The coronavirus pandemic has rapidly evolved into an unprecedented crisis. The susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model and its variants have been used for modeling the pandemic. However, time-independent parameters in the classical…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-09-09 Hyokyoung G. Hong , Yi Li

The deadly coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has gone out of control globally. Despite much effort by scientists, medical experts, and society in general, the…

Biomolecules · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-02 Kaifu Gao , Rui Wang , Jiahui Chen , Limei Cheng , Jaclyn Frishcosy , Yuta Huzumi , Yuchi Qiu , Tom Schluckbier , Guo-Wei Wei

Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 all across the globe, we have performed simulations of a system dynamic epidemic spread model in different possible situations. The simulation, not only captures the model dynamic of the spread of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-04-02 Kashif Zia , Umar Farooq

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused tremendous amount of deaths and a devastating impact on the economic development all over the world. Thus, it is paramount to control its further transmission, for which purpose it…

Applications · Statistics 2021-01-11 Quan-Lin Li , Chengliang Wang , Yiming Xu , Chi Zhang , Yanxia Chang , Xiaole Wu , Zhen-Ping Fan , Zhi-Guo Liu

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has wreaked havoc worldwide with millions of lives claimed, human travel restricted and economic development halted. Leveraging city-level mobility and case data, our analysis shows…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-06-29 Yafei Zhang , Lin Wang , Jonathan J. H. Zhu , Xiaofan Wang

The novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 and resulting COVID-19 disease have had an unprecedented spread and continue to cause an increasing number of fatalities worldwide. While vaccines are still under development, social distancing, extensive…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-02 Calvin Tsay , Fernando Lejarza , Mark A. Stadtherr , Michael Baldea

Millions of people have been infected and lakhs of people have lost their lives due to the worldwide ongoing novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. It is of utmost importance to identify the future infected cases and the virus spread rate…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-05-04 Naresh Kumar , Seba Susan

In this article, we have proposed an epidemic model by using probability cellular automata theory. The essential mathematical features are analyzed with the help of stability theory. We have given an alternative modelling approach for the…

Cellular Automata and Lattice Gases · Physics 2009-05-30 Jin Zhen , Liu Quanxing , Mainul Haque

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has changed our lives and still poses a challenge to science. Numerous studies have contributed to a better understanding of the pandemic. In particular, inhalation of aerosolised pathogens has…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2022-09-02 Simon Rahn , Marion Gödel , Gerta Köster , Gesine Hofinger

In December 2019, the first patients in Wuhan, China were diagnosed with a primary atypical pneumonia, which showed to be unknown and contagious. Since then, known as COVID-19 disease, the responsible viral pathogen, SARS-CoV-2, has spread…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-01-30 Philipp Heider

We have developed a globally applicable diagnostic Covid-19 model by augmenting the classical SIR epidemiological model with a neural network module. Our model does not rely upon previous epidemics like SARS/MERS and all parameters are…

Physics and Society · Physics 2020-11-24 Raj Dandekar , Chris Rackauckas , George Barbastathis

In this paper, we propose a dynamical model to describe the transmission of COVID-19, which is spreading in China and many other countries. To avoid a larger outbreak in the worldwide, Chinese government carried out a series of strong…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-03-09 Jiwei Jia , Jian Ding , Siyu Liu , Guidong Liao , Jingzhi Li , Ben Duan , Guoqing Wang , Ran Zhang