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We study optimal estimation when the likelihood may be misspecified. Building on tools from the theory of decision-making under uncertainty, we analyze a class of axiomatically grounded optimality criteria which nests several existing…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-28 Isaiah Andrews , Ricky Li , Yucheng Shang

We address the problem of policy evaluation in discounted Markov decision processes, and provide instance-dependent guarantees on the $\ell_\infty$-error under a generative model. We establish both asymptotic and non-asymptotic versions of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-17 Koulik Khamaru , Ashwin Pananjady , Feng Ruan , Martin J. Wainwright , Michael I. Jordan

Sample average approximation (SAA) replaces an intractable expected objective by an empirical average and is a basic device of modern stochastic optimization. We develop a rate theory for optimal values and empirical…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-29 Hien Duy Nguyen , Jacob Westerhout , Xin Guo

In this paper, we consider the problem of learning models with a latent factor structure. The focus is to find what is possible and what is impossible if the usual strong factor condition is not imposed. We study the minimax rate and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-11-07 Yinchu Zhu

Experimental designs that are minimax in the presence of model misspecifications have been constructed so as to minimize the maximum, over classes of alternate response models, of the integrated mean squared error of the predicted values.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-04-27 Rui Hu , Douglas P. Wiens

For the problem of high-dimensional sparse linear regression, it is known that an $\ell_0$-based estimator can achieve a $1/n$ "fast" rate on the prediction error without any conditions on the design matrix, whereas in absence of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-01 Yuchen Zhang , Martin J. Wainwright , Michael I. Jordan

Classically, a mainstream approach for solving a convex-concave min-max problem is to instead solve the variational inequality problem arising from its first-order optimality conditions. Is it possible to solve min-max problems faster by…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-11-06 Henry Shugart , Jason M. Altschuler

We obtain robust and computationally efficient estimators for learning several linear models that achieve statistically optimal convergence rate under minimal distributional assumptions. Concretely, we assume our data is drawn from a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-07 Ainesh Bakshi , Adarsh Prasad

We consider nonparametric regression under covariate shift, where we observe samples from both the target distribution and a related but distinct source distribution. We introduce a novel object, the transfer function, and show that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-09 Petr Zamolodtchikov

We consider statistical Markov Decision Processes where the decision maker is risk averse against model ambiguity. The latter is given by an unknown parameter which influences the transition law and the cost functions. Risk aversion is…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-21 Nicole Bäuerle , Ulrich Rieder

We study sequential experiments where sampling is costly and a decision-maker aims to determine the best treatment for full scale implementation by (1) adaptively allocating units between two possible treatments, and (2) stopping the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-06 Karun Adusumilli

Current techniques in machine learning are so far are unable to learn classifiers that are robust to adversarial perturbations. However, they are able to learn non-robust classifiers with very high accuracy, even in the presence of random…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-01-04 Preetum Nakkiran

Composite likelihoods are a class of alternatives to the full likelihood which are widely used in many situations in which the likelihood itself is intractable. A composite likelihood may be computed without the need to specify the full…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-01-08 Helen Ogden

This manuscript studies statistical properties of linear classifiers obtained through minimization of an unregularized convex risk over a finite sample. Although the results are explicitly finite-dimensional, inputs may be passed through…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-06-15 Matus Telgarsky

Machine learning algorithms in high-dimensional settings are highly susceptible to the influence of even a small fraction of structured outliers, making robust optimization techniques essential. In particular, within the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-25 Changyu Gao , Andrew Lowy , Xingyu Zhou , Stephen J. Wright

This note uses a simple example to show how moment inequality models used in the empirical economics literature lead to general minimax relative efficiency comparisons. The main point is that such models involve inference on a low…

Applications · Statistics 2014-12-19 Timothy B. Armstrong

For frequentist settings in which parameter randomness represents variability rather than uncertainty, the ideal measure of the support for one hypothesis over another is the difference in the posterior and prior log odds. For situations in…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-09-03 David R. Bickel

This paper proves, in very general settings, that convex risk minimization is a procedure to select a unique conditional probability model determined by the classification problem. Unlike most previous work, we give results that are general…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-06-16 Matus Telgarsky , Miroslav Dudík , Robert Schapire

In this work, we study local minimax convergence estimation rates subject to $\epsilon$-differential privacy. Unlike worst-case rates, which may be conservative, algorithms that are locally minimax optimal must adapt to easy instances of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-10-31 Audra McMillan , Adam Smith , Jon Ullman

We consider the problem of learning from training data obtained in different contexts, where the underlying context distribution is unknown and is estimated empirically. We develop a robust method that takes into account the uncertainty of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-02-18 Muhammad Osama , Dave Zachariah , Petre Stoica