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This paper investigates bifurcation phenomena and stability of most probable transition paths (MPTPs) in stochastic dynamical systems through a combined variational and spectral flow approach. Within the Onsager-Machlup framework, MPTPs are…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2025-08-13 Jinqiao Duan , Zhihao Zhao

Systems of stochastic particles evolving in a multi-well energy landscape and attracted to their barycenter is the prototypical example of mean-field process undergoing phase transitions: at low temperature, the corresponding mean-field…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-03-04 Pierre Monmarché

We investigate a quantitative network of gene expression dynamics describing the competence development in Bacillus subtilis. First, we introduce an Onsager-Machlup approach to quantify the most probable transition pathway for both…

Molecular Networks · Quantitative Biology 2022-04-27 Jianyu Hu , Xiaoli Chen , Jinqiao Duan

We introduce a path sampling method for obtaining statistical properties of an arbitrary stochastic dynamics. The method works by decomposing a trajectory in time, estimating the probability of satisfying a progress constraint, modifying…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-06-04 Nicholas Guttenberg , Aaron R. Dinner , Jonathan Weare

The population biology model holds a significant position within ecosystems. Introducing stochastic perturbations into the model can more accurately depict real biological processes. In this paper, we primarily investigate the most probable…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2025-07-18 Hui Wang , Ying Wang , Xi Chen

This work is devoted to deriving the Onsager-Machlup action functional for stochastic partial differential equations with (non-Gaussian) Levy process as well as Gaussian Brownian motion. This is achieved by applying the Girsanov…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-07 Jianyu Hu , Jinqiao Duan

We consider the problem of adaptive stabilization for discrete-time, multi-dimensional linear systems with bounded control input constraints and unbounded stochastic disturbances, where the parameters of the true system are unknown. To…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-04-04 Seth Siriya , Jingge Zhu , Dragan Nešić , Ye Pu

The decay of unstable states when several metastable states are available for occupation is investigated using path-integral techniques. Specifically, a method is described which allows the probabilities with which the metastable states are…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-07 Alan McKane , Martin Tarlie

The time evolution of many physical, chemical, and biological systems can be modelled by stochastic transitions between the minima of the potential energy surface describing the system of interest. We show that in cases where there are two…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-09-11 S. P. Fitzgerald , A. Bailey Hass , G. Díaz Leines , A. J. Archer

Bistable autonomous systems can be found inmany areas of science. When the intrinsic noise intensity is large, these systems exhibits stochastic transitions from onemetastable steady state to another. In electronic bistable memories, these…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-05-14 Léopold Van Brandt , Jean-Charles Delvenne

In stochastic resonance, a periodically forced Brownian particle in a double-well potential jumps between minima at rare increments, the prediction of which poses a major theoretical challenge. Here, we use a path-integral method to find a…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2020-04-02 L. T. Giorgini , S. H. Lim , W. Moon , J. S. Wettlaufer

Stochastic systems often exhibit multiple viable metastable states that are long-lived. Over very long timescales, fluctuations may push the system to transition between them, drastically changing its macroscopic configuration. In realistic…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-04-14 Tobias Grafke , Alessandro Laio

We analyze the effect of additive fractional noise with Hurst parameter $H > \frac{1}{2}$ on fast-slow systems. Our strategy is based on sample paths estimates, similar to the approach by Berglund and Gentz in the Brownian motion case. Yet,…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-19 Katharina Eichinger , Christian Kuehn , Alexandra Neamtu

Devising optimal interventions for constraining stochastic systems is a challenging endeavour that has to confront the interplay between randomness and nonlinearity. Existing methods for identifying the necessary dynamical adjustments…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-10-18 Dimitra Maoutsa , Manfred Opper

The selection of an equilibrium state by maximising the entropy of a system, subject to certain constraints, is often powerfully motivated as an exercise in logical inference, a procedure where conclusions are reached on the basis of…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-12-03 Ian J. Ford

The maximum likelihood state for a simplified stochastic thermohaline circulation model is investigated. It is shown that a jump occurs for the maximum likelihood state during transitions between two metastable states. The jump helps to…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-03-17 Fang Yang , Xu Sun , Jinqiao Duan

The escape probability is a deterministic concept that quantifies some aspects of stochastic dynamics. This issue has been investigated previously for dynamical systems driven by Gaussian Brownian motions. The present work considers escape…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2012-05-15 Huijie Qiao , Xingye Kan , Jinqiao Duan

Using recent mathematical advances, a geometric approach to rare noise-driven transition events in nonequilibrium systems is given, and an algorithm for computing the maximum likelihood transition curve is generalized to the case of…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-10-19 Matthias Heymann , Stephen W. Teitsworth , Jonathan C. Mattingly

We propose a stochastic MPC scheme using an optimization over the initial state for the predicted trajectory. Considering linear discrete-time systems under unbounded additive stochastic disturbances subject to chance constraints, we use…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-07-19 Henning Schlüter , Frank Allgöwer

Brownian motion on manifolds with non-trivial diffusion coefficient can be constructed by stochastic development of Euclidean Brownian motions using the fiber bundle of linear frames. We provide a comprehensive study of paths for such…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-08-31 Erlend Grong , Stefan Sommer