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Estimating predictive uncertainty is crucial for many computer vision tasks, from image classification to autonomous driving systems. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an sampling method for performing Bayesian inference. On the other hand,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-03 Diego Vergara , Sergio Hernández , Matias Valdenegro-Toro , Felipe Jorquera

Computing systems interacting with real-world processes must safely and reliably process uncertain data. The Monte Carlo method is a popular approach for computing with such uncertain values. This article introduces a framework for…

Advanced algorithms are necessary to obtain faster-than-real-time dynamic simulations in a number of different physical problems that are characterized by widely disparate time scales. Recent advanced dynamic Monte Carlo algorithms that…

Materials Science · Physics 2016-11-23 M. A. Novotny

A wide spectrum of design and decision problems, including parameter tuning, A/B testing and drug design, intrinsically are instances of black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful tool that models and optimizes such…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-14 Tianyi Bai , Yang Li , Yu Shen , Xinyi Zhang , Wentao Zhang , Bin Cui

Single-objective black box optimization (also known as zeroth-order optimization) is the process of minimizing a scalar objective $f(x)$, given evaluations at adaptively chosen inputs $x$. In this paper, we consider multi-objective…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-11 Daniel Golovin , Qiuyi Zhang

Importance sampling is one of the most widely used variance reduction strategies in Monte Carlo rendering. In this paper, we propose a novel importance sampling technique that uses a neural network to learn how to sample from a desired…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Quan Zheng , Matthias Zwicker

The encoding of solutions in black-box optimization is a delicate, handcrafted balance between expressiveness and domain knowledge -- between exploring a wide variety of solutions, and ensuring that those solutions are useful. Our main…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2020-07-07 Adam Gaier , Alexander Asteroth , Jean-Baptiste Mouret

Recent advances in coreset methods have shown that a selection of representative datapoints can replace massive volumes of data for Bayesian inference, preserving the relevant statistical information and significantly accelerating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-01-18 Dionysis Manousakas , Hippolyt Ritter , Theofanis Karaletsos

Variational inference lies at the core of many state-of-the-art algorithms. To improve the approximation of the posterior beyond parametric families, it was proposed to include MCMC steps into the variational lower bound. In this work we…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-09-28 Christopher Wolf , Maximilian Karl , Patrick van der Smagt

Classical algorithms in numerical analysis for numerical integration (quadrature/cubature) follow the principle of approximate and integrate: the integrand is approximated by a simple function (e.g. a polynomial), which is then integrated…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-06-15 Yuji Nakatsukasa

Variational inference has become an increasingly attractive fast alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for approximate Bayesian inference. However, a major obstacle to the widespread use of variational methods is the lack of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-03-03 Jonathan H. Huggins , Mikołaj Kasprzak , Trevor Campbell , Tamara Broderick

We present a generalisation of the sifting procedure introduced originally by Sims for computation with finite permutation groups, and now used for many computational procedures for groups, such as membership testing and finding group…

Group Theory · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Sophie Ambrose , Max Neunhoeffer , Cheryl E. Praeger , Csaba Schneider

When investigators seek to estimate causal effects, they often assume that selection into treatment is based only on observed covariates. Under this identification strategy, analysts must adjust for observed confounders. While basic…

Applications · Statistics 2019-01-09 Luke Keele , Dylan Small

In many optimization problems arising from scientific, engineering and artificial intelligence applications, objective and constraint functions are available only as the output of a black-box or simulation oracle that does not provide…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-08-15 Jeffrey Larson , Matt Menickelly , Stefan M. Wild

Monte Carlo sampling is a powerful toolbox of algorithmic techniques widely used for a number of applications wherein some noisy quantity, or summary statistic thereof, is sought to be estimated. In this paper, we survey the literature for…

Normalizing flows are a class of machine learning models used to construct a complex distribution through a bijective mapping of a simple base distribution. We demonstrate that normalizing flows are particularly well suited as a Monte Carlo…

Nuclear Theory · Physics 2021-08-11 Jack Brady , Pengsheng Wen , Jeremy W. Holt

This paper explores advancements in quantum algorithms for derivative pricing of exotics, a computational pipeline of fundamental importance in quantitative finance. For such cases, the classical Monte Carlo integration procedure provides…

There is a long history in machine learning of model ensembling, beginning with boosting and bagging and continuing to the present day. Much of this history has focused on combining models for classification and regression, but recently…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-28 Ira Globus-Harris , Varun Gupta , Michael Kearns , Aaron Roth

As a computational alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches, variational inference (VI) is becoming more and more popular for approximating intractable posterior distributions in large-scale Bayesian models due to its comparable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-05 Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati , Yun Yang

This monograph presents the main complexity theorems in convex optimization and their corresponding algorithms. Starting from the fundamental theory of black-box optimization, the material progresses towards recent advances in structural…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-11-17 Sébastien Bubeck
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