Related papers: Did lockdowns serve their purpose?
The real-time analysis of infectious disease surveillance data, e.g., in the form of a time-series of reported cases or fatalities, is essential in obtaining situational awareness about the current dynamics of an adverse health event such…
The UK government announced its first wave of lockdown easing on 10 May 2020, two months after the non-pharmaceutical measures to reduce the spread of COVID-19 were first introduced on 23 March 2020. Analysis of reported case rate data from…
It is evident that increasing the intensive-care-unit (ICU) capacity and giving priority to admitting and treating younger patients will reduce the number of COVID-19 deaths, but a quantitative assessment of these measures has remained…
This paper combines a canonical epidemiology model of disease dynamics with government policy of lockdown and testing, and agents' decision to social distance in order to avoid getting infected. The model is calibrated with data on deaths…
We present a very simple and transparent method to interpret time series of confirmed Covid-19 cases. Roughly speaking, the analysis of weekly new infections for each day is a tool for the definition and early detection of the turning point…
The infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 is one of the measures of disease impact that can be of importance for policy making. Here we show that many of the studies on which these estimates are based are scientifically flawed for…
Estimating the true mortality burden of COVID-19 for every country in the world is a difficult, but crucial, public health endeavor. Attributing deaths, direct or indirect, to COVID-19 is problematic. A more attainable target is the "excess…
Economic shocks due to Covid-19 were exceptional in their severity, suddenness and heterogeneity across industries. To study the upstream and downstream propagation of these industry-specific demand and supply shocks, we build a dynamic…
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused more than 8 million confirmed cases and 500,000 death to date. In response to this emergency, many countries have introduced a series of social-distancing measures including lockdowns and businesses'…
We adapt a SEIRD differential model with asymptomatic population and Covid deaths, which we call SEAIRD, to simulate the evolution of COVID-19, and add a control function affecting both the diffusion of the virus and GDP, featuring all…
In the face of elevated pandemic risk, is it necessary to completely lock down the population, imposing extreme social distancing? Canonical epidemiological models suggest this may be unavoidable for months at a time, despite the heavy…
Disadvantaged groups around the world have suffered and endured higher mortality during the current COVID-19 pandemic. This contrast disparity suggests that socioeconomic and health-related factors may drive inequality in disease outcome.…
The pandemic caused by the novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV2 has been responsible for life threatening health complications, and extreme pressure on healthcare systems. While preventive and definite curative medical interventions are yet to…
We study the causal effects of lockdown measures on uncertainty and sentiment on Twitter. To this end, we exploit the quasi-experimental framework created by the first COVID-19 lockdown in a high-income economy--the unexpected Italian…
The rapidly spreading Covid-19 that affected almost all countries, was first reported at the end of 2019. As a consequence of its highly infectious nature, countries all over the world have imposed extremely strict measures to control its…
In this paper, we continue development of the new epidemiological model HIT, which is suitable for analyzing and predicting the propagation of COVID-19 epidemics. This is a discrete-time model allowing a reconstruction of the dynamics of…
We develop an agent-based model to assess the cumulative number of deaths during hypothetical Covid-19-like epidemics for various non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies. We consider local and non-local modes of disease transmission. The…
Emerging at the end of 2019, COVID-19 has become a public health threat to people worldwide. Apart from the deaths who tested positive for COVID-19, many others have died from causes indirectly related to COVID-19. Therefore, the COVID-19…
The financial markets are understood as complex dynamical systems whose dynamics is analysed mostly using nonstationary and brief data sets that usually come from stock markets. For such data sets, a reliable method of analysis is based on…
Social distancing is the primary policy prescription for combating the COVID-19 pandemic, and has been widely adopted in Europe and North America. We estimate the value of disease avoidance using an epidemiological model that projects the…