Related papers: Did lockdowns serve their purpose?
This work systematically conducts a data analysis based on the numbers of both cumulative and daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths in a time span through April 2020 to June 2022 for over 200 countries around the world. Such research…
In countries with a severe outbreak of COVID-19, most governments are considering whether anti-transmission measures are worth social and economic costs. The seriousness of economic costs such as the closure of some workplaces,…
We identify the effectiveness of social distancing policies in reducing the transmission of the COVID-19 spread. We build a model that measures the relative frequency and geographic distribution of the virus growth rate and provides…
The COVID-19 has caused more than three million infections and over two hundred thousand deaths by April 20201. Limiting socioeconomic activities (SA) is among the most adopted governmental mitigating efforts to combat the transmission of…
A new coronavirus disease, called COVID-19, appeared in the Chinese region of Wuhan at the end of last year; since then the virus spread to other countries, including most of Europe. We propose a differential equation governing the…
On 19th March, the World Health Organisation declared a pandemic. Through this global spread, many nations have witnessed exponential growth of confirmed cases brought under control by severe mass quarantine or lockdown measures. However,…
During the COVID-19 pandemic, governments faced the challenge of managing population behavior to prevent their healthcare systems from collapsing. Sweden adopted a strategy centered on voluntary sanitary recommendations while Belgium…
By the end of July 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic had infected more than seventeen million people and had spread to almost all countries worldwide. In response, many countries all over the world have used different methods to reduce the…
We recently described a dynamic causal model of a COVID-19 outbreak within a single region. Here, we combine several of these (epidemic) models to create a (pandemic) model of viral spread among regions. Our focus is on a second wave of new…
The number of corona virus (COVID-19) infections grows worldwide. In order to create short term predictions to prepare for the extent of the global pandemic we analyze infection data from the top 25 affected countries. It is shown that all…
Biologists have found that the death rate of cells in culture depends upon their spatial density. Permanent "Stay alive" signals from their neighbours seem to prevent them from dying. In a previous paper (Wang et al. 2013) we gave evidence…
Models for epidemic spread typically account for variable risk factors but do not account for the correlation between behavior and risk. Here we extend these models to account for such correlations. We find that a positive correlation…
We aim at clarifying the controversy about the effects of school openings or closures on the course of the Covid-19 pandemic. The mathematical analysis of compartmental models with subpopulations shows that the in-school contact rates…
The recent outbreak of the COVID-19 led to the death of millions of people worldwide. To stave off the spread of the virus, the authorities in the US employed different strategies, including the mask mandate order issued by the states'…
No, they can't. Epidemic spread is characterized by exponentially growing dynamics, which are intrinsically unpredictable. The time at which the growth in the number of infected individuals halts and starts decreasing cannot be calculated…
The importance of a strict quarantine has been widely debated during the COVID-19 epidemic even from the purely epidemiological point of view. One argument against strict lockdown measures is that once the strict quarantine is lifted, the…
To slow down the spread of Covid-19, administrative regions within Pakistan imposed complete and partial lockdown restrictions on socio-economic activities, religious congregations, and human movement. Here we examine the impact of regional…
While COVID-19 has resulted in a significant increase in global mortality rates, the impact of the pandemic on mortality from other causes remains uncertain. To gain insight into the broader effects of COVID-19 on various causes of death,…
Objective: Cause-of-death distributions are important for prioritising interventions. We estimated proportions, risks, and numbers of deaths (with uncertainty) for programme-relevant causes of neonatal death for 194 countries for 2000-2013,…
Countries and cities around the world have resorted to unprecedented mobility restrictions to combat Covid-19 transmission. Here we exploit a natural experiment whereby Colombian cities implemented varied lockdown policies based on ID…