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Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a rapidly emerging respiratory disease caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Due to the rapid human-to-human transmission of SARS-CoV-2, many healthcare systems…
Accurate modeling of lockdown effects on SARS-CoV-2 epidemic evolution is a key issue in order e.g. to inform health-care decisions on emergency management. The compartmental and spatial models so far proposed use parametric descriptions of…
In this paper a Bayesian SEIR model is studied to estimate the proportion of the population infected with SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19. To capture heterogeneity in the population and the effect of interventions to reduce…
We give some numerical observations on the total number of infected by the SARS-CoV-2 in Italy. The analysis is based on a tanh formula involving two parameters. A polynomial correlation between the parameters gives an upper bound for the…
The COVID-19 outbreak is asynchronous in US counties. Mitigating the COVID-19 transmission requires not only the state and federal level order of protective measures such as social distancing and testing, but also public awareness of…
Although close contact represents an important contagion route, the mechanism of exposure to exhaled droplets remains insufficiently characterized. In this study, an integrated risk assessment is presented for SARS-CoV-2 close contact…
The question of how SARS-CoV-2 is transmitted remains surprisingly controversial today, especially with reference to airborne transmission. In fact, despite a large body of scientific evidence, health and regulatory authorities still…
We introduce a new probabilistic model to estimate the real spread of the novel SARS-CoV-2 virus along regions or countries. Our model simulates the behavior of each individual in a population according to a probabilistic model through an…
Globally the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus has infected more than 59 million people and killed more than 1.39 million. Designing and monitoring interventions to slow and stop the spread of the virus require knowledge of how many people have been…
The determination of the infection fatality rate (IFR) for the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is a key aim for many of the field studies that are currently being undertaken in response to the pandemic. The IFR together with the basic…
In February 2020 the first human infection with SARS-CoV-2 was reported in Germany. Since then the local public health offices have been responsible to monitor and react to the dynamics of the pandemic. One of their major tasks is to…
A pipeline to evaluate the evolution of viral dynamics based on a new model-driven approach has been developed in the present study. The proposed methods exploit real data and the multiscale structure of the infection dynamics to provide…
We present results on the infection risk from SARS-CoV-2 under different scenarios based on measured particle size-dependent mask penetration, measured total inward leakage, measured human aerosol emission for sizes from 10nm to 1mm, and…
Large scale virological testing of SARS-Cov2 is implemented since May 2020 in France. We assume that the positivity of asymptomatic people not being contact cases (ANBC) is representative of the positivity of the whole French population,…
Understanding the number of individuals who have been infected with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, and the extent to which social distancing policies have been effective at limiting its spread, are critical for effective policy going…
There are many sources of data giving information about the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the population, but all have major drawbacks, including biases and delayed reporting. For example, the number of confirmed cases largely…
In a previous article [1] we have described the temporal evolution of the Sars- Cov-2 in Italy in the time window February 24-April 1. As we can see in [1] a generalized logistic equation captures both the peaks of the total infected and…
The viral load of patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 varies on logarithmic scales and possibly with age. Controversial claims have been made in the literature regarding whether the viral load distribution actually depends on the age of the…
In this paper the risk of infection from SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant of passengers sharing a car cabin with an infected subject for a 30-min journey is estimated through an integrated approach combining a recently developed predictive…
We estimate the reduction in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 achievable by surveillance testing of a susceptible population at different frequencies, comparing the cases of both the original Wuhan strain and the Delta variant. We estimate the…