Related papers: Discontinuous epidemic transition due to limited t…
Human pathogens transmitted through environmental pathways are subject to stress and pressures outside of the host. These pressures may cause pathogen pathovars to diverge in their environmental persistence and their infectivity on an…
The "New York State on Pause" executive order came into effect on March 22 with the goal of ensuring adequate social distancing to alleviate the spread of COVID-19. Pause will remain effective in New York City in some form until early June.…
Using a simple economic model in which social-distancing reduces contagion, we study the implications of waning immunity for the epidemiological dynamics and social activity. If immunity wanes, we find that COVID-19 likely becomes endemic…
We study the effectiveness of tracking and testing in mitigating or suppressing epidemic outbreaks, in combination with or as an alternative to quarantines and global lockdowns. We study these intervention methods on a network-based SEIR…
Lately, concepts such as lockdown, quarantine, and social distancing have become very relevant since they have been associated with essential measures in the prevention and mitigation of COVID-19. While some conclusions about the…
Rapidly mutating pathogens may be able to persist in the population and reach an endemic equilibrium by escaping hosts' acquired immunity. For such diseases, multiple biological, environmental and population-level mechanisms determine the…
Changing environmental conditions can significantly affect the dynamics of disease spread. These changes may arise naturally or result from human interventions; in the latter case, lockdown measures that lead to abrupt but temporary…
The symptoms of many infectious diseases influence their host to withdraw from social activity limiting their own potential to spread. Successful transmission therefore requires the onset of infectiousness to coincide with a time when its…
The World Health Organization (WHO) made the assessment that COVID-19 can be characterized as a pandemic on March 11, 2020. To the COVID-19 outbreak, there is no vaccination and no treatment. The only way to control the COVID-19 outbreak is…
A vast array of transformative technologies developed over the past decade has enabled measurement and perturbation at ever increasing scale, yet our understanding of many systems remains limited by experimental capacity. Overcoming this…
Rapid testing of appropriate specimens from patients suspected for a disease during an epidemic, such as the current Coronavirus outbreak, is of a great importance for the disease management and control. We propose a method to enhance…
In this article we propose a compartmental model for the dynamics of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19). We take into account the presence of asymptomatic infections and the main policies that have been adopted so far to contain the…
In Fall 2020, several European countries reported rapid increases in COVID-19 cases along with growing estimates of the effective reproduction rates. Such an acceleration in epidemic spread is usually attributed to time-dependent effects,…
Infectious diseases are practically represented by models with multiple states and complex transition rules corresponding to, for example, birth, death, infection, recovery, disease progression, and quarantine. In addition, networks…
The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…
Epidemics unfold by means of a spreading process from each infected individual to a random number of secondary cases. It has been claimed that the so-called superspreading events in COVID-19 are governed by a power-law tailed distribution…
Epidemiological contact network models have emerged as an important tool in understanding and predicting the spread of infectious disease, due to their capacity to engage individual heterogeneity that may underlie essential dynamics of a…
This article is a reproduction of a Fraunhofer ITWM report from 28 June 2021 on the contribution of various non-pharmaceutical measures in breaking the 3rd Corona wave in Germany. The main finding is that testing contributed more to the…
We introduce a theoretical framework that highlights the impact of physical distancing variables such as human mobility and physical proximity on the evolution of epidemics and, crucially, on the reproduction number. In particular, in…
The epidemiology has recently witnessed great advances based on computational models. Its scope and impact are getting wider thanks to the new data sources feeding analytical frameworks and models. Besides traditional variables considered…