Related papers: Discontinuous epidemic transition due to limited t…
In epidemic modeling, the term infection strength indicates the ratio of infection rate and cure rate. If the infection strength is higher than a certain threshold -- which we define as the epidemic threshold - then the epidemic spreads…
Consider an epidemic model with a constant flux of susceptibles, in a situation where the corresponding deterministic epidemic model has a unique stable endemic equilibrium. For the associated stochastic model, whose law of large numbers…
For centuries isolation has been the main control strategy of unforeseen epidemic outbreaks. When implemented in full and without delay, isolation is very effective. However, flawless implementation is seldom feasible in practice. We…
We present a thorough inspection of the dynamical behavior of epidemic phenomena in populations with complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns. We show that the growth of the epidemic prevalence is virtually instantaneous in all…
We consider control of reaction and population systems by deterministically imposed transitions between the states with different numbers of particles or individuals. Even where the imposed transitions are significantly less frequent than…
Containment measures implemented by some countries to suppress the spread of COVID-19 have resulted in a slowdown of the epidemic characterized by time series of daily infections plateauing over extended periods of time. We prove that such…
When controlling an emerging outbreak of an infectious disease it is essential to know the key epidemiological parameters, such as the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and the control effort required to prevent a large outbreak. These…
Antigenic escape constitutes the main mechanism allowing rapidly evolving viruses to achieve endemicity. Beyond granting immune escape, empirical evidence also suggests that mutations of viruses might increase their inter-host…
After the first lockdown in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, many countries faced difficulties in balancing infection control with economics. Due to limited prior knowledge, economists began researching this issue using cost-benefit…
The recent COVID-19 pandemic underscores the significance of early-stage non-pharmacological intervention strategies. The widespread use of masks and the systematic implementation of contact tracing strategies provide a potentially equally…
Epidemic models often reflect characteristic features of infectious spreading processes by coupled non-linear differential equations considering different states of health (such as Susceptible, Infected, or Recovered). This compartmental…
We study how the interplay between the memory immune response and pathogen mutation affects epidemic dynamics in two related models. The first explicitly models pathogen mutation and individual memory immune responses, with contacted…
The outbreak of COVID-19 since Dec. 2019 has caused severe life and economic damage worldwide, many countries are trapped by medical resource constraints or absence of targeted therapeutics, and therefore the implement of systemic policies…
The frequent emergence of diseases with the potential to become threats at local and global scales, such as influenza A(H1N1), SARS, MERS, and recently COVID-19 disease, makes it crucial to keep designing models of disease propagation and…
In a prior study, a novel deterministic compartmental model known as the SEIHRK model was introduced, shedding light on the pivotal role of test kits as an intervention strategy for mitigating epidemics. Particularly in heterogeneous…
In response to the worldwide outbreak of the coronavirus disease COVID-19, a variety of nonpharmaceutical interventions such as face masks and social distancing have been implemented. A careful assessment of the effects of such containment…
The spreading of evolutionary novelties across populations is the central element of adaptation. Unless population are well-mixed (like bacteria in a shaken test tube), the spreading dynamics not only depends on fitness differences but also…
The COVID-19 pandemic began over two years ago, yet schools, businesses, and other organizations are still struggling to keep the risk of disease outbreak low while returning to (near) normal functionality. Observations from these past…
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced changes in production and especially in human interaction, with "social distancing" a standard prescription for slowing transmission of the disease. This paper examines the economic effects of social…
Epidemic spreading of infectious diseases is ubiquitous and has often considerable impact on public health and economic wealth. The large variability in spatio-temporal patterns of epidemics prohibits simple interventions and demands for a…