Related papers: Evidence for increasing frequency of extreme coast…

Recent studies have shown that, in coastal waters where water depth decreases significantly due to rapid bathymetric changes, the non-equilibrium dynamics (NED) substantially increases the occurrence probability of extreme (rogue) waves.…

This work presents a systematic framework for improving the predictions of statistical quantities for turbulent systems, with a focus on correcting climate simulations obtained by coarse-scale models. While high resolution simulations or…

In many applied fields, the prediction of more severe events than those already recorded is crucial for safeguarding against potential future calamities. What-if analyses, which evaluate hypothetical scenarios up to the worst-case event,…

Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often the source of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to mass infrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticity maxima which…

Sea-level rise (SLR) is magnifying the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. The rate and amount of global mean sea-level (GMSL) rise is a function of the trajectory of global mean surface temperature (GMST). Therefore, temperature…

In recent years, the climate change research community has become highly interested in describing the anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, commonly termed "event attribution." Limitations in the observational record and in…

We consider the statistics of extreme ship motions in a nonlinear irregular wave field. While an accurate computation is possible by using a full Monte-Carlo method to cover all individual wave conditions, the computational cost may become…

Significant wave height forecasting is a key problem in ocean data analytics. This task affects several maritime operations, such as managing the passage of vessels or estimating the energy production from waves. In this work, we focus on…

Extreme value analysis (EVA) uses data to estimate long-term extreme environmental conditions for variables such as significant wave height and period, for the design of marine structures. Together with models for the short-term evolution…

In multivariate extreme value analysis, the nature of the extremal dependence between variables should be considered when selecting appropriate statistical models. Interest often lies with determining which subsets of variables can take…

Deep learning models have demonstrated remarkable success in various fields, including seismology. However, one major challenge in deep learning is the presence of mislabeled examples. Additionally, accurately estimating model uncertainty…

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk…

Most climate trend studies analyze long-term trends as a proxy for climate dynamics. However, when examining seasonal data, it is unrealistic to assume that long-term trends remain consistent across all seasons. Instead, each season likely…

Faithful uncertainty quantification (UQ) is paramount in high stakes climate prediction. Deep ensembles, or ensembles of probabilistic neural networks, are state of the art for UQ in machine learning (ML) and are growing increasingly…

Quantifying changes in the probability and magnitude of extreme flooding events is key to mitigating their impacts. While hydrodynamic data are inherently spatially dependent, traditional spatial models such as Gaussian processes are poorly…

Forecasting time series with extreme events has been a challenging and prevalent research topic, especially when the time series data are affected by complicated uncertain factors, such as is the case in hydrologic prediction. Diverse…

We present a novel statistical treatment, the "metastatistics of extreme events", for calculating the frequency of extreme events. This approach, which is of general validity, is the proper statistical framework to address the problem of…

Climate change poses complex challenges, with extreme weather events becoming increasingly frequent and difficult to model. Examples include the dynamics of Combined Sewer Systems (CSS). Overburdened CSS during heavy rainfall will overflow…

Accurate ocean modeling and coastal hazard prediction depend on high-resolution bathymetric data; yet, current worldwide datasets are too coarse for exact numerical simulations. While recent deep learning advances have improved earth…

Identifying tropical cyclones that generate destructive storm tides for risk assessment, such as from large downscaled storm catalogs for climate studies, is often intractable because it entails many expensive Monte Carlo hydrodynamic…