Related papers: Shallow Neural Hawkes: Non-parametric kernel estim…
Multivariate Hawkes process provides a powerful framework for modeling temporal dependencies and event-driven interactions in complex systems. While existing methods primarily focus on uncovering causal structures among observed…
Learning causal structure among event types on multi-type event sequences is an important but challenging task. Existing methods, such as the Multivariate Hawkes processes, mostly assumed that each sequence is independent and identically…
We introduce a point process regression model that is applicable to price models and limit order book models. Hawkes type autoregression in the intensity process is generalized to a stochastic regression to covariate processes. We establish…
A Hawkes process on $\R$ is a point process whose intensity function at time $t$ is a functional of its past activity before time $t$. It is defined by its activation function $\Phi$ and its memory function $h$. In this paper, the Hawkes…
As an extension of self-exciting Hawkes process, the multivariate Hawkes process models counting processes of different types of random events with mutual excitement. In this paper, we present a perfect sampling algorithm that can generate…
Hawkes processes are point process models that have been used to capture self-excitatory behavior in social interactions, neural activity, earthquakes and viral epidemics. They can model the occurrence of the times and locations of events.…
There is often latent network structure in spatial and temporal data and the tools of network analysis can yield fascinating insights into such data. In this paper, we develop a nonparametric method for network reconstruction from…
We introduce and show the existence of a Hawkes self-exciting point process with exponentially-decreasing kernel and where parameters are time-varying. The quantity of interest is defined as the integrated parameter…
The Hawkes process is a simple point process with wide applications in finance, social networks, criminology, seismology, and many other fields. The Hawkes process is defined for continuous-time setting. However, data is also recorded in a…
This work proposes a unifying probabilistic framework for the design of robustly asymptotically stable moving-horizon estimators (MHE) for discrete-time nonlinear systems, and a mechanism to incorporate differential privacy in…
We establish a scalable manifold learning method and theory, motivated by the problem of estimating fMRI activation manifolds in the Human Connectome Project (HCP). Our primary contribution is the development of an efficient estimation…
In this paper, the efficient hinging hyperplanes (EHH) neural network is proposed based on the model of hinging hyperplanes (HH). The EHH neural network is a distributed representation, the training of which involves solving several convex…
Hawkes process is a class of simple point processes that is self-exciting and has clustering effect. The intensity of this point process depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in finance, neuroscience and many other…
This paper introduces the kernel mixture network, a new method for nonparametric estimation of conditional probability densities using neural networks. We model arbitrarily complex conditional densities as linear combinations of a family of…
Oscillatory systems of interacting Hawkes processes with Erlang memory kernels were introduced in Ditlevsen (2017). They are piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP) and can be approximated by a stochastic diffusion. First, a strong…
The Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) is a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the classical Hidden Markov Model for learning from (spatio-)temporal data. A sticky HDP-HMM has been proposed to strengthen…
In computational mechanics, multiple models are often present to describe a physical system. While Bayesian model selection is a helpful tool to compare these models using measurement data, it requires the computationally expensive…
We develop TwinKernel methods for nonparametric estimation of intensity functions of point processes. Building on the general TwinKernel framework and combining it with martingale techniques for counting processes, we construct estimators…
Some recent papers relate the criticality of complex systems to their maximal capacity of information processing. In the present paper, we consider high dimensional point processes, known as age-dependent Hawkes processes, which have been…
Multi-function radars (MFRs) are sophisticated types of sensors with the capabilities of complex agile inter-pulse modulation implementation and dynamic work mode scheduling. The developments in MFRs pose great challenges to modern…