Related papers: Shallow Neural Hawkes: Non-parametric kernel estim…
We give a construction of the Hawkes process as a piecewise competing risks model. We argue that the most natural interpretation of the self-excitation kernel is the hazard function of a defective random variable. This establishes a link…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic functions of finite Markov chains, or, put in other words, state space models with finite state space. In this paper, we examine subspace estimation methods for HMMs whose output lies a finite…
There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the traditional HMM. However, in many settings the HDP-HMM's strict Markovian constraints are…
Existing spatio-temporal Hawkes process models typically rely on either parametric or semiparametric assumptions, limiting the model's ability to capture complex endogenous and exogenous event dynamics. We propose a fully Bayesian…
We propose a fast and efficient estimation method that is able to accurately recover the parameters of a d-dimensional Hawkes point-process from a set of observations. We exploit a mean-field approximation that is valid when the…
Many event sequence data exhibit mutually exciting or inhibiting patterns. Reliable detection of such temporal dependency is crucial for scientific investigation. The de facto model is the Multivariate Hawkes Process (MHP), whose impact…
Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic methods in which observations are seen as realizations of a latent Markov process with discrete states that switch over time. Moving beyond standard statistical tests, HMMs offer a statistical…
Self- and mutually-exciting point processes are popular models in machine learning and statistics for dependent discrete event data. To date, most existing models assume stationary kernels (including the classical Hawkes processes) and…
Irregular and asynchronous event sequences are prevalent in many domains, such as social media, finance, and healthcare. Traditional temporal point processes (TPPs), like Hawkes processes, often struggle to model mutual inhibition and…
In this paper we introduce a novel method to estimate the head pose of people in single images starting from a small set of head keypoints. To this purpose, we propose a regression model that exploits keypoints computed automatically by 2D…
We characterize a Hawkes point process with kernel proportional to the probability density function of Mittag-Leffler random variables. This kernel decays as a power law with exponent $\beta +1 \in (1,2]$. Several analytical results can be…
The training process of neural networks is known to be time-consuming, and having a deep architecture only aggravates the issue. This process consists mostly of matrix operations, among which matrix multiplication is the bottleneck. Several…
Most point process models for earthquakes currently in the literature assume the magnitude distribution is i.i.d. potentially hindering the ability of the model to describe the main features of data sets containing multiple earthquake…
We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to…
A Kernel Adaptive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is introduced, for the purpose of sampling from a target distribution with strongly nonlinear support. The algorithm embeds the trajectory of the Markov chain into a reproducing kernel Hilbert…
Inferring parameters of high-dimensional partial differential equations (PDEs) poses significant computational and inferential challenges, primarily due to the curse of dimensionality and the inherent limitations of traditional numerical…
This paper presents an algorithm for the simulation of Hawkes-type processes where the intensity is expressed in terms of a continuous-time autoregressive moving average model. We identify upper bounds for both the univariate and the…
The present study proposes incorporating non-parametric knowledge into the diffusion least-mean-squares algorithm in the framework of a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. The proposed algorithm leads to a robust estimation of an unknown…
Kernel methods are powerful tools to capture nonlinear patterns behind data. They implicitly learn high (even infinite) dimensional nonlinear features in the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space (RKHS) while making the computation tractable by…
Point processes are widely used statistical models for continuous-time discrete event data, such as medical records, crime reports, and social network interactions, to capture the influence of historical events on future occurrences. In…